Putin’s truce is aimed at undermining Ukraine’s reputation – ISW
According to analysts, Putin could achieve a pause for Russian troops to give them the opportunity to rest, regain strength and reorient themselves to resume offensive operations in critical areas of the front.
Such a pause would cost the Russian troops an exorbitant amount of money and begin to deprive Ukraine of initiative. Putin called for a ceasefire to portray Ukraine as intransigent and unwilling to take enough steps to negotiate.
As reported by ISW, this is a deliberate information tactic used by Russia in the past.
Ceasefires also take time to organize and implement. Kremlin official Dmytro Peskov, in particular, said on December 14 that Russia has no plans for a ceasefire on Orthodox Christmas, so Putin’s unexpected statement was surprising.
The fact that Putin presents the ceasefire on religious grounds further reinforces another twofold Russian information operation, which portrays Ukraine as a predominantly religious group and positions Putin as a true defender of the Christian faith, the expert writes.
As ISW previously noted, the Kremlin has used the debate about Orthodoxy as a weapon to accuse Kyiv of oppressing religious freedoms in Ukraine.
This information about the operation may support the Kremlin’s baseless version that Ukraine is persecuting Orthodox Christians of the alleged Russian version, which Putin has repeatedly advanced as a justification for his illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The ceasefire announcement positions Putin as a guarantor of Christian values and beliefs. Putin and other Russian officials have often portrayed the war in Ukraine as a religious war against “Satanism.”
In fact, Russian forces have been suppressing freedom of religion in the occupied territory of Ukraine since 2014.
At the same time, the pro-war information space of Russian bloggers reacted to the cease-fire announcement with fierce dissatisfaction.
Key findings of ISW analysts
- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement that Russian troops are observing a 36-year-old ceasefire in connection with the celebration of Orthodox Christmas is likely an information operation aimed at damaging Ukraine’s reputation.
- Putin’s presentation of a religiously-based ceasefire reinforces yet another Russian information operation that falsely portrays Ukraine as a predominantly religious group and positions Putin as the true defender of the Christian faith.
- Putin has not changed his main maximum goals in Ukraine.
- The financier of “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the prisoners who voluntarily joined the “PKV” were pardoned, probably in an attempt to increase their influence and political power, to increase the recruitment of prisoners.
- Forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost ground along the Svatove-Kreminna line, and Russian forces claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Russian area.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a successful counterattack, while Russian forces continued further operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk.
- Russian troops continued to act as sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the Dnipro River and to strengthen their positions in the eastern (left-bank) Kherson region.
- Mobilized Russian servicemen probably still account for the majority of Russian military casualties in Ukraine.
this, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that The Kremlin wants to use Christmas as a coverto halt the advance of the Ukrainian military in Donbass and get closer to the positions of the Armed Forces.
In turn, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, said that the “unilateral ceasefire” cannot and should not be taken seriously.
Let us add that the US State Department believes that the “Christmas truce” – a temporary pause before re-attacking.
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