1. FC Köln: What was FC better at last season?
Linton Maina versus FC Augsburg. (Photo: Bucco)
1. FC Köln has changed its game this season. Some values have fallen noticeably compared to last year. The reason for this is, among other things, the double burden of the Conference League. CREATEFOOTBALL* data analysts look at the differences.
First things first – the outcome: 1. FC Köln conceded significantly more goals than they scored this season. The Expected Goals model shows why the fans can be hopeful: If you use these values, then 1. FC Köln would be even a little more successful than last season. Goalkeeper Marvin Schwäbe has made simple mistakes so far this season. 8.79 unavoidable goals are the absolute negative peak value in this Bundesliga season. The second weakest keeper is Alexander Schwolow with 5.4 unavoidable goals. In an international comparison with the top 5 leagues in Europe, Schwäbe is in last place.
New system and less aggressive
Steffen Baumgart is clearly using the 4-2-3-1 system this season than last season (4-2-3-1 nine times, while the 4-1-3-2 formation only twice). In the past season, the team often played in 4-1-3-2 (13 times, 4-2-3-1 also 13 times). As a result, the team is in a much better defensive position – but also at the expense of their own offensive. Cologne allows significantly fewer shots than last season, but also shoots much less often at the opposing goal.
Compared to last season, the team acts much more cautiously and no longer with such pronounced, aggressive (counter)pressing. If the FC withdraws (the PPDA value has dropped significantly), the opponent gives the ball much more control and is no longer quite so possession-oriented. This also explains the difference in duels: Less possession of the ball also means fewer duels with the ball and a less aggressive attack by the opponent means fewer duels without the ball. Overall, the intensity of Baumgart’s game was significantly reduced.
The reduced aggressive start-up also explains the low number of intensive sprints and intensive runs. The overall running work falls into this season, but is likely to be higher than last year. Ultimately, both factors are certainly also due to the double burden of international business and a resulting adjustment by Baumgart.
Still flank-heavy, but less successful
In the past season, Cologne was characterized, among other things, by the pressing and the resulting (high) ball gains, which resulted in a switchover situation including a counterattack. Since the game philosophy is designed to be more wait-and-see this season, these values (ball conquests and counterattacks) are also slightly lower.
The second strength of the past season were the flanks. The number of crosses is a little lower, but if you take into account your own ball possession percentage, the Cologne game is still very cross-heavy (still the top value in the Bundesliga). Now Anthony Modeste is noticeably missing: The top crossers Kainz (4.3 crosses at 25% accuracy, last season 5.0 at 30%), Schmitz (4.3 at 39%, last season 3.7 at 42%), Hector (2.8 crosses at 21%, last season 2.9 at 32%) have consistently had significantly weaker success rates on their crosses, while the number of crosses has not declined as much.
In their own ball possession, FC holds the ball a little longer than in the previous season, plays longer ball relays and thus manages to play into the opposing third or the opposing penalty area. However, the team is taking fewer deals. Here, too, Modeste is missing with 3.1 shots per 90 minutes. For comparison: Steffen Tigges only 1.3 deals per 90 minutes.
Overview of the relevant data
Season 21/22 | Season 22/23 | |
Crack | 1.53 | 1.40 |
goals conceded | 1.44 | 1.93 |
xG | 1.49 | 1.40 |
xGa | 1.46 | 1.24 |
Shots (% Accuracy) | 13.0 (34%) | 11.8 (33%) |
Enemy Shots (% Accuracy) | 11.5 (39%) | 10.5 (39%) |
Passes (% Accuracy) | 430.5 (80%) | 416.3 (81%) |
possession | 55.6 | 52.8 |
Tackles (% Success Rate) | 229.2 (48%) | 208.7 (48%) |
Aerial Duels (% Success Rate) | 42.5 (49%) | 43.6 (47%) |
Tackles with ball (% success rate) | 65.1 (40%) | 59.7 (41%) |
Tackles without the ball (% success rate) | 70.6 (59%) | 65.7 (61%) |
ball wins | 90.4 | 86.7 |
positional attacks | 30.9 | 29.5 |
counter | 15.6 | 13.5 |
Flanks (% Accuracy) | 20.7 (35%) | 19.0 (28%) |
Deep winning crosses | 7.2 | 5.2 |
Deep successful passes | 7.9 | 6.7 |
Runs/passes into the penalty area | 26.9 | 27.1 |
Ball actions in the penalty area | 20.4 | 18.3 |
Intercepted Passes | 45.8 | 41.9 |
clarification actions | 19.5 | 16.0 |
Forward Passes (% of total passes) | 157.9 (37%) | 145.9 (35%) |
Long passes (% of total passes) | 49.7 (12%) | 49.0 (13%) |
Passes into the opponent’s third (% share of total passes) | 50.5 (12%) | 52.7 (13%) |
Progressive passes (% of total passes) | 80.3 (19%) | 79.1 (19%) |
game pace | 16.6 | 16.3 |
Average number of passes in ball possession | 3.64 | 3.85 |
PPDA | 8.00 | 10.61 |
Running distance (km) | 116.0 | 117.0 |
sprints | 237.6 | 219.5 |
Intense runs | 746.9 | 708.7 |
Conclusion
All in all, Baumgart’s team is playing different football this season. The exhausting aggressive pressing of the past season has been quickly reduced since the international weeks and only used selectively. The second strength of the past season, the flanks, are still a fundamental strength of the Cologne team, but with Modeste the best header player is missing as a buyer. Steffen Tigges has not yet been able to seamlessly replace the Frenchman. The team is meanwhile lower and more stable, but with Marvin Schwäbe a backing from the last season of this year is clearly weakening. Should Schwäbe stabilize and the goals/goals conceded approach the Expected Goals model values, Cologne should play more successfully.
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*This text comes from the football consultancy CREATEFOOTBALL GmbH, which advises national and international professional clubs, consulting agencies and media institutions in the fields of data scouting and analysis.