how the population in Ukraine will change after the war – Ukrainea – tsn.ua
Demographics are sounding the alarm because of falling birth rates and emigration.
The next year, 2023, will be the year of a catastrophic fall in the birth rate in Ukraine.
The director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research spoke about it. M.V. Ella Libanova’s birds, reported “Ukrinform“.
In her opinion, the loss of population due to the war and related migration processes are catastrophic. Demographica believes that by 2030, the population of Ukraine may decrease to 35 million.
“I dream that by 2030 we will have 35 million. Unfortunately, this may not be the case. Because the war is going on, we are losing people due to high mortality. low-quality food, insufficient medical care,” she explained.
The expert believes that the year 2023 will be a catastrophic drop in the birth rate.
“Let’s say, in order to have a simple restoration of generations, it is necessary for one woman to give birth to 2.13 – 2.15 children during her lifetime (on average). In 2021, I have a small indicator of 1.1. In 2022, even less, but the reduction will not yet be catastrophic due to children born in the first half of the year. God forbid that in 2023 we stop at the indicator of 0.8,” says Libanova.
She also draws attention to another problem – emigration. Demography warns that the more Ukrainians stay abroad, the better they adapt, and therefore try to stay there forever.
“In addition to the fact that the hot phase of the war will last longer, our infrastructure will be more destroyed – both industrial and social, primarily housing. If people’s homes are destroyed and if they don’t have a job, they will have nowhere and nothing to return to,” Libanova concluded.
Earlier, Ella Libanova denied the opinion of some experts that there will be a military baby boom in Ukraine. She also warned that in the worst case scenario, it is possible to leave Ukraine up to 5 million more citizens.
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