Sweden’s BEVs Hit New High Before Incentive Cut
Sweden’s share of plug-in electric vehicles hit a record in November, increasing to 64.6% of the car market, from 54.3% a year ago. Full electrics saw dramatic growth in share, up 42.5% in November, from 26.0% year-on-year, impacted by policy changes. Total car volumes were 25,588 units, up 21.5% YoY from a weak 2021, but still about 15.8% down from pre-2020 seasonal norms (average >30,000 units). November’s best-selling vehicle was the Volvo XC40 full electric.
November’s combined plug-in share of 64.5% was made up of 42.5% battery electrics (BEVs) and 22.1% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). These compare to 26.0% and 28.3% a year ago, showing striking growth in BEVs even as PHEVs declined.
In volume terms, BEVs hit a new monthly record of 10,868 units (almost double the 5,468 year-over-year). The public policy environment was the biggest influence on these results: The “climate bonus” incentive was scrapped during the month, leading to a flurry of BEV orders to capture the bonus before expiration.
Some of these rushed BEV orders were able to be fulfilled quickly, boosting November’s BEV registration volumes, while most will take up to 12 months to actually be delivered to customers and appear in the registration results.
Conventional combustion-only powertrains (combined) were at a new record low, falling for the first time with just under 25% of the market (24.6%).
November’s best-selling BEV cars
The Volvo XC40 was the best-selling BEV in November, again beating the Volkswagen ID.4 into second place, the same as last month. This time the sibling Volvo C40 took 3rd and the cousin Polestar 2 4th, a fantastic result for the Volvo-Polestar family.
The Tesla Model Y rebounded to 5th place, from relative absence last month. The MG Marvel R regained a top ten spot, for the first time since July.
Further back, the Renault Megane continued to increase sales, reaching 237 units in November and 16th place.
In terms of newer emerging models, the MG4 saw its first commercial volumes in November, with 102 units. Likewise, the BYD Atto 3, which appeared last month in sample volumes, saw a decent 83 units in November. It is an SUV, the size between the Kia Niro and the VW ID.4, Sweden’s two most popular BEV cars. Still, it’s more affordable than both, while offering similar range and capacity.
Both MG4 and BYD Atto 3 have great sales potential on the Swedish market.
At the more expensive end of the market, BYD Tang, a larger premium SUV, also increased volumes, selling 24 units in November.
Last but not least, the new BMW i7 broke cover and registered first 3 units in November (maybe showrooms only for now). This high-end model (almost €150,000 base price) will never come close to the top 20, but it’s still good to see BMW moving another one of its oldest iconic vehicle segments into the BEV.
Now let’s take a look at the 3-month picture:
Tesla’s erratic logistics means that the Model Y has for the moment lost its previous lead, to be replaced by the Volvo XC40. A good bit later, the VW ID.4 takes 2nd and the Volvo C40 3rd.
Here are the most important climbers since three months ago:
Here are those who lost their ranking:
Remember that Sweden is a smaller market, so manufacturers’ temporary allocation decisions can result in significant fluctuations in model registration volumes, which do not necessarily reflect the vehicle’s actual popularity.
Sight
As mentioned above, a large part of November’s strong BEV performance was due to the effects of the last “climate bonus” incentive expiring. As Mobility Sweden put it “The [unexpected] scrapping of the climate bonus led to a rush to the car dealers on Tuesday 8 November and historically high order figures, where 95 percent of the orders were for plug-in cars” (machine translation).
We’ve seen from the UK – which also suspended plug-in purchase incentives recently – that BEV demand is increasing not necessarily take a big permanent hit from reduced purchase incentives. But the UK implemented a steady phase-out over time, rather than a single shutdown. We will have to wait and see how Sweden’s BEV market is affected by this latest, more abrupt, change.
For their part, Mobility Sweden assesses that “We assess that the strong growth rate of electric cars will be slowed down if new policy instruments are not introduced.” (machine translation)
Given the recent political change, it is difficult to predict what will happen in December and in the coming months.
What are your thoughts on Sweden’s car market transition? Please jump into the comments below to join the discussion.
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