The danger of the ‘Istanbul earthquake’ to the economy – Dünya Newspaper
COPPER
While the concerns about the great earthquake are growing gradually until the expected and necessary measures in Istanbul and the surrounding provinces will cause serious destruction, the indicators regarding the measurement in the Turkish economy of the province indicate that this will not only be limited to local physical destruction and loss of life, but also severe for the country’s economy. brings about destruction.
After the 5.9 earthquake in Düzce, it was turned back to Istanbul. Precautions are insufficient, the expected big earthquake is expected to cause heavy destruction on the North Anatolian Fault Line and in the province of Istanbul and the surrounding provinces, which are evaluated as unstable about the third of the housing stock. While the concerns based on “unpreparedness for the Great Istanbul earthquake”, which recur in every small and medium earthquake and are forgotten until the new one occurs, are generally protective only for this location, the probability of an earthquake in the province is the growth of 81 provinces and 85 million citizens at the same time. Apart from other measures such as defense and security, a disaster of this scale poses a great threat to the survival of the country in terms of the national economy. In other words, a devastating Istanbul-based earthquake will actually become the “Great Turkey Earthquake” if no action is taken.
The third one in GDP is from Istanbul
As of the end of 2021, 84 million 680 thousand 273 people live in Istanbul with 15 million 840 thousand 900 people and 18.7 percent of them live, and 31 percent of the total national income of 81 provinces is realized. In other words, 31 liras of Turkey’s national income of every 100 liras is created by Istanbul, while the remaining 69 liras can be provided by other 80 provinces.
Survey by sectors Istanbul alone manages 64.4 percent of the gross product in the field of information and communication. The banking and finance center is also the heart of the province, and its share in the finance and insurance sector’s gross product reaches 56.3 percent. The share of Istanbul’s workers is 46.5 percent in the administrative services support sector, 40 percent in services, 32.6 percent in construction, 30.3 percent in real estate, 25.8 percent in the manufacturing industry, and 24.8 percent in the industry. exists.
While Istanbul comes alone in the third place of the country’s GDP, this payment reaches 40 percent, including the surrounding provinces such as Kocaeli, Düzce, Sakarya, Tekirdağ and Kırklareli, which are likely to be first in the expected major Istanbul earthquake.
State half income from Istanbul
As the main source of financing for public services, Istanbul alone uses 45 lira of the 100 lira tax it collects from the citizens of the state. The cost of Istanbul to the state is many times higher than the share of budget revenues and public expenditures.
According to the provisions of the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, 45.3 percent of the 829.8 billion lira tax collected in the country in the January-October period this year, 828.1 billion lira was obtained from Istanbul. Together with other incomes such as undertakings and administrators, donations, interest, shares and penalties, and capital revenues, the total revenue of the central government budget, which reached 199.4 billion liras, was 874 billion liras and 39.7 percent in Istanbul.
Meanwhile, Kocaeli, which is the third highest tax paying province with its developed industry, had a share of 10.4 percent in total tax collection and 9.2 percent in central government revenue budgets.
world finance; industry and commerce, with all its sectors, is the heart of the economy. The financial center in Turkey is located in Istanbul.
49 banks operate in Istanbul with a total of 2 thousand 545 branches. 26% of all bank branches in Turkey are located in Istanbul. 25 percent of all ATM devices in the country with 11 thousand 561 and 49 percent of POS devices with 2 million 78 thousand 544 units are in this province.
In the banking sector, the country’s average member business production is in Istanbul with 2 million 69 thousand 772 and 44.7 percent payment. At the same time, this shows the development of the province in incorporation and trade and its weight throughout the country.
where the money turns
As of the end of 2021, 47.6 percent of the total deposit volume in the Turkish banking system, which was 921.8 billion TL, and 343.8 billion TL, which is 47.6 percent, belongs to depositors from Istanbul. At the same time, 41.5 percent of the total loans, of which 4 expenditures are 396.5 billion liras, and 826.6 billion of their expenditures belong to debtors residing in Istanbul.
On the other hand, Borsa İstanbul A.Ş. Istanbul, which is also the center of (BIST) user capital, is in the same position for the insurance sector.
The possibility of a major earthquake also poses a great risk for the informatics infrastructure of all these sectors, where millions of electronic transactions are carried out.
The same is true for telecommunications companies and operators operating in the country forecast. The possibility of our communication work due to the earthquake is described as a dystopia and the necessity of taking additional measures against this possibility is emphasized.
Biggest company zone
158 of the 500 largest industrial settlements with the salary of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry are based in Istanbul. The number of large industrial establishments in the two provinces is approaching 200, with 41 establishments based in Kocaeli.
Accordingly, it is the locomotive of the country’s economy, which protects the location at the target of the expected great earthquake, the added value it creates with the use of its giant industry, and the number of employees. This reveals the magnitude of the effects of the possible earthquake on the country’s economy.
There are 5 million vehicles in Istanbul
Istanbul is also the largest domestic market for the automotive industry due to its population density and consumption power. At the end of October 2022, 3 million 307 thousand 777 of 14 million 157 thousand 691 automobiles across the country, which is 23.4 percent, are used by Istanbul consumers. Istanbul has a 19 percent share with 4 million 895 thousand 803 units in the total motor vehicle journey, which reaches 26 million 229 thousand at the same time.
Meanwhile, Istanbul is also the province with the largest physical natural gas and electricity lines, water network and construction infrastructure among 81 provinces. If this lower nest is damaged in a major disaster, it means a serious destruction and burden for the country’s economy.
Is the housing stock ready for an earthquake?
In the 23 years since the 17 August 1999 earthquake, in which 18 thousand people lost their lives, government conflict, within the scope of preparations for the next big earthquake, government conflict, leaving urbanization behind and building earthquake-resistant houses, weight damage to “urban transformation”, the stock of buildings with a high probability of collapse in the earthquake at the current stage is still high. reported to form a ratio. Located on the fault line and where a major earthquake is expected, Istanbul draws attention with its old housing stock.
According to the report of Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, there are 1 million 225 thousand buildings and around 4.8 million flats in this building. The number of buildings in the province, built in 2000 and before, exceeds 817 thousand. This means that approximately 3.1 million dwellings are inhabited. Risky buildings make up the dimensions of the total.
Considering that the average household size is 3.2 people, an earthquake of 7.5 or more is a prime rival to the lives of nearly 10 million people, with the most optimistic estimate.
The most executive residences are in Fatih and Üsküdar
Fatih is at the forefront of the districts where there are buildings with a construction date of 2000 and previous years, with 39 thousand 786 units. This district is followed by Üsküdar with 35 thousand 353, Bağcılar with 34 thousand 618, Pendik with 34 thousand 592, Beykoz with 34 thousand 333, Ümraniye with 33 thousand 727 and Sarıyer with 33 thousand 68. 28 thousand 156 in Küçükçekmece, 26 thousand 630 in Silivri, 24 thousand 992 in Beyoğlu, 24 thousand 685 in Maltepe, 23 thousand 800 in Esenyurt, 23 thousand 702 in Kartal, 23 thousand 690 in Kağıthane, Sultanbeyli There are 23 thousand 275 buildings in Istanbul, 22 thousand 923 in Sultangazi, 22 thousand 137 in Eyüpsultan, 21 thousand 161 in Gaziosmanpaşa.