The match between Ankara and Cairo in Libya and the challenge for Athens
Greek foreign policy is faced with difficult choices after the reports in Libya, which constitute the first challenge priority for Greek foreign policy.
Turkey and Egypt are locked in a direct confrontation over the control of developments in Libya, as Cairo seems determined to prevent in any way the involvement of Turkey’s influence in the important Arab country of North Africa, the outcome of which directly concerns Greece .
A competition that is not only about keeping Libya’s rich energy resources out of Turkey’s control, but has a larger dimension, as it concerns the effort of Egypt, the largest Arab country, to prevent Turkey’s intervention in the Arab world and the creation of a sphere Erdogan’s influence in the area of the Arabs.
Ankara may be making efforts to distance itself from the Muslim Brotherhood, but Cairo and President Al-Sisi remain deeply suspicious of Erdogan’s expansionism and know that at the first opportunity he will turn on the Muslim Brotherhood followers for manipulating the Arabs. . And this is something that exceeds any tolerance limit of Egypt.
With Egypt emerging in rival Turkey’s awe over proposals in Libya, it is largely understandable that Athens is trying to find common ground and follow Cairo’s choices, despite the fact that this leads to excesses such as the absence . diplomatic representation of Greece in Tripoli. Today, even Egypt maintains a chargé d’affaires in the Libyan capital, while France just last week appointed and installed its ambassador in Tripoli, who was actually of Arab origin.
In this fluid setting, the intervention of the Greek Prime Minister to the Americans, specifically to the Foreign Minister A. Blinken, is of particular importance, with which (according to the publication of the Sunday Daily) he requested that influence be exerted on the Dbeiba government so that the talks between Greece and Libya can be resumed for the delimitation of their maritime zones.
Of course, this Greek proposal will have to overcome the obstacle that has been foreseen by both Athens and Cairo, namely the fact that the Dbeiba government is not authorized to take decisions that agreements with other countries much more when these sovereign rights. of Libya.
The opening of a dialogue between Greece and Libya was a very positive scenario, but the possibility of the Americans exerting such influence on the Libyan government was not known. And in any case, from the first moment that serious problems will arise, the first being whether the negotiation for the demarcation that concerns the entire range of the maritime borders of Greece and Libya, which presupposes the cancellation by Tripoli of the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum.
Or in a different case, such a negotiation could in ideal conditions have the two countries enter into a co-contract which would, however, put both the Turko-Libyan Memorandum (causing Turkey’s involvement) as well as the granting of licenses to the Court of Justice companies for research on the plots which Greece has already licensed to foreign companies southwest of Crete (in Greek but not demarcated through international continental shelf agreements).
The confrontation between Cairo and Ankara
The new data created in the freezing of the Egypt-Turkey talks on the occasion of the supposed events in Libya, are highlighted in the most characteristic way by the recent statements of Shoukry. Moderate and measured in his statements, the Egyptian Foreign Minister did not hide his words, stating that the joint exploratory meetings between his country and Turkey stopped after usually two rounds, as “there was no change in the practices of the Turkish side in Libya” . The Occasion was the signing of new agreements by the government of Dbeyba and Ankara, the first on the activation of the 2019 Turko-Libyan Memorandum and the undertaking of oil exploration by Turkish companies on behalf of Libya, and the military cooperation agreements signed by Mr. Dbeyba in Ankara with H. Akar.
This confrontation was continued on Sunday, with Mr. Soukry not intervening in the Ministerial Meeting of the Arab League in Algiers and imposing an amendment to the Joint Communiqué of the Summit meeting today and tomorrow, according to which there should be “a a unified government that will represent all Libyans, that will end the transitional phase and establish the country in elections”, a promotion that Libyan Foreign Minister N. Mangoos disagreed with, as this statement effectively delegitimizes the current Dbeiba government.
Egypt as well as Athens but also other important capitals such as Washington, Paris, Berlin and the EU, have agreed that based on the Political Agreement to which it owes its case, the Dbeiba government has no right to sign binding agreements the country. This is also Greece’s strong argument that characterizes the agreement of October 3rd as non-existent.
It is particularly important that in the UN Security Council which approved the renewal of UNMIL for Libya, despite the reaction of the Turkish sole representative, it finally included in its resolution, for the first time, an explicit reference to Article 6 of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum Agreement . , which provides that the government cannot enter into agreements that will bind the country in the future and may be harmful to the country’s foreign policy. Something that directly refers to the latest Turkish-Libyan agreement of October 3rd. A development for which Greek diplomatic sources expressed satisfaction.
Egypt, which maintains close ties with the forces of Eastern Libya, according to reports in the Arab press, is also moving towards the side of Haftar who controls Eastern Libya with an additional argument, that the area offered by the Dbeiba government to Turkey for investigations concerns mainly areas of maritime zones that have a point of reference in Eastern Libya which it does not control and cannot exercise sovereign rights in the Dbeiba government. The Egyptians seem to insist and want to encourage the Eastern Libyan forces to directly challenge Turkey’s right to move into the maritime area projecting off the eastern Libyan coast.
What is Egypt afraid of?
According to information from Arab media, Egypt is not acting alone, but in full cooperation with France, as the common goal is to limit the expansion of Ankara’s control over Libya’s energy sources and infrastructure.
However, regarding the support of Eastern Libya by Egypt there is a serious problem due to Haftar’s ties with Moscow and the support he has received from the Wagner paramilitary forces, as Haftar’s support can be seen as indirect support of strengthening Moscow’s influence in Libya.
According to the information, Cairo sees the Turkish activity in Libya’s energy sector as a threat to the planned transformation of Egypt into an export hub for the natural gas of the Eastern Mediterranean through the LNG stations that are already operating in the Egyptian territory, but also reacts negatively to the Turkish effort. to push for Nigerian gas to be piped through Libya to the Eastern Mediterranean, instead of the planned route through Algeria and Morocco in order to gain control of this energy source for Europe as well.
Yesterday, however, the head of the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) Arhat bin Qadara, it appears that Libya has reached an agreement with ENI and BP for exploration and extraction of natural gas and in marine areas in the Gulf of Sirte where according to the same areas greater than the huge Egyptian Zohr deposit.