Economic plus or minus
It is difficult to answer the question posed in the title, what will happen next year: plus or minus. What we can take for granted is that the next year will be difficult. Economic policy is skillfully shaped by its decision-makers – the government and the Hungarian National Bank – and with a little luck the recession will be avoided in 2023. While the nightmare of 2009-2010 looms large in terms of difficulties, the situation is completely different. Because the country’s financing is lacking and stable, this year’s goal is sustainable, but the trajectory of the national debt must be adjusted to the slope.
Actions speak for themselves: in order to balance the budget, the government took action at the front. At the end of last year, one household reduced this year’s public budget deficit target, postponed those investments that had not yet reached the implementation phase, and budget bodies were ordered to use frugal management. They all notice that the government should stick to the deficit target. Hungary’s financing was ensured by the deteriorating environment, Hungarian government securities are sold at auctions with multiple oversubscriptions.
Hungary is physically close to the Russian-Ukrainian war, it can be clearly seen in market expectations, and this can also be seen in the development of inflation. Summa summarum: our most difficult year is expected to be 2023, but there is a good chance that we will be able to avoid the recession. The situation is difficult, but not hopeless.
Over the past twelve years, Hungary has come out of every crisis stronger than when it went into it. Don’t let it be any different now!
The author is the deputy editor-in-chief of Figyelő
Cover image: The Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s signboard next to the entrance gate of the building in the V. district of the capital at Szabadság tér 8-9. (Photo: MTVA/László Róka)