Analysts by Fitch’s ‘rating’ on a rise in Portugal’s ‘rating’
ONE financial rating agency scheduled for the Portuguese sovereign debt investment fair, after a ‘stable on positive rating’ outlook and maintained for sovereign debt investment at ‘BBB’.
“Given the recent past of the equivalent decisions of rating agencies and the proposed State Budget and with some approval, it is likely that the ‘BBB+’ rating with stable stability, is not the perspective that S&P assigned on the 9th of September”, says Filipe Garcia, economist and president of the IMF – Financial Markets Information.
For the economist, the reduction may justify an eventual rise with the “very good performance of the accounts” this year, which, “with the help of the reduction of still low interest rates, will allow a substantial reduction of the debt budget in 2022 and will be a good point starting point for 2023”.
“It will also likely welcome the commitment of OE2023 [Orçamento do Estado para 2023] with the calculation of deviation, calculated at a deviation of 1% – which implies room for manoeuvre — and a reduction of the room for manoeuvre/GDP (Pro Domestic Gross) closer to 110% than 115%”, says .
However, personal salience, however, the reservations could be “some to raise the rating”, which could be “beyond raising the rating”, which could be “beyond raising the rating”, which could be “beyond raising the rating” , taking into account that “the winds will precipitate next year considering that they will allow a good fiscal performance this year if they are attenuating or even reversing ” Economic growth will be lower than this year, economic inflation is forecast to be lower and interest rates interest rates continue to rise, in a scenario of great geolytic and energy challenges.
However, Filipe Silva, investment director at Banco Carregosa, believes that Fitch should keep its outlook and Portugal’s rating unchanged.
“It is a fact that we have higher oath rates and that the tasks will still increase in the short term. I believe that the current levels of interest rates are one that puts themselves in the cause of the dynamics of national economic activity”, he justifies.
The analyst still, therefore, that the highlighted economy continues to show resilience in the face of signs of slowdown in the international environment, noting that GDP should continue on a downward trajectory, the unemployment rate is at the lowest levels of the 10 years of age, the housing sector at pre-levels and “there are 1 indicators of greater economic importance in the country”.
Henrique Tomé, an analyst at XTB, also anticipated a maintenance of the current assessment by Fitch.
The banking analyst as the inflationary competitive level, the higher level of economic debt in relation to GDP and the risk of economic slowdown as the points of economic activity, despite positive factors such as the sector’s resilience and an average economic growth for this year .
In May, Fitch highlighted the performance and consideration of the stability of the debt reduction policy.
“A stronger economic recovery than expected and a degree of pandemic containment in the government’s response to the pandemic led to better budgets compared to the eurozone media,” he said in the note released at the time.
The next, and last, agency to look at Portugal’s rating this year is Moody’s, on November 18th.
The ‘r’ is an assessment given by the credit rating agencies, impact for funding and countries of companies, as it assesses the risk of companies.
The evaluation evaluations’ calendars are, however, merely indicative, and these options may not be pronounced on the forecast dates or use with a non-scheduled indication.
Read too: Wood? Government says it is “significant” Fitch maintains credit profile