The CGIA report on growth in 2023, negative expectations for Genoa – Lavocedigenova.it
One of the most difficult winters of the last 50 years is coming. In fact, to save the budgets of households and businesses, it will be necessary to use at least 70 billion euros by the end of the year. Of these, 5 to halve the expensive bills and the same number, with the 2023 Budget law, not to implement some measures3 by the outgoing government from next January.
This was written by the Cgia Studies Office, underlining that the situation is critical: the new necessary will have to do the impossible to recover all these resources without resorting to an increase in the deficit, given that, at most, it will be able to use a “treasure ”Which could reach 25 billion euros. If it fails to recover another 45, we risk a very complicated 2023.
According to the latest forecasts, in fact, as many as six out of ten provinces will record negative growth.
According to an estimate by the Cgia Studies Office, to mitigate the expensive energy, the new government should find at least 35 billion euros by 31 December, to halve the cost increases for families and businesses expected in 2022. Increases that, net of the 58 billion in aid disbursed this year against high bills, they amount to a total of 70 billion euros. That is why, according to the CGIA, another 30 billion euros are needed, to which 5 billion must be added to add the effects against the increase in the bills included with the Ai ter decree also in December.
Given the very tight times, even approving the budget law in the near future will not be easy: by law the definitive vote must take place by 31 December, otherwise the provisional exercise could take place. Therefore, the time available is very tight and it is not easy to find all the resources for, it will also be for the coming year, a lot of aid available from the Draghi government which, it is estimated also for the euro, can be quantified as follows: almost 15 billion euro to renew in the first quarter the measures against high energy costs envisaged by the Aid ter decree; at least € 8.5 billion to index pensions; at least 5 billion for the renewal of the public employment contract; € 4.5 billion for the 2% contribution discount for employees with income up to € 35,000; 2 billion euros of non-deferrable expenses.
They are resources, those just listed, which do not reach any other measure; much less those that were at the center of the very recent electoral campaign. Such as the extension of the flat tax, the minimum pensions of 1,000 euros, the cut of the tax wedge, etc.
The “treasure”, which the new government will “inherit” from the outgoing Prime Minister Draghi, could be 20 billion euros: 10 to be used immediately and another 10 to be used in the 2023 maneuver. Resources that have been “recovered” without creating a new deficit, thanks to the fact that in the last year the outgoing executive has managed to keep the accounts in order. Further help could also come from Brussels, which is about to develop a measure that should recover structural funds not yet spent or not committed in a binding way. Our country could have between 4-5 billion euros available.
Therefore, against 70 billion in expenses to be committed in just over 2 months, the new government can count on a coverage of around 25 billion. If you do not want to make any further budget slippage, it will certainly not be easy to find 45 billion euros in a short time.
For never, as at this moment, to elaborate economic forecasts is a particularly difficult institution, according to all the research leaders, however, 2023 will be very difficult. Of the 107 provinces monitored by Prometeia, for example, 67 (equal to 62% of the total) will record negative growth next year.
On the contrary, the province of Milan will govern the degree at national level, where the increase in added value will be 0.8%. In second place, for growth in 2023, is the province of Savona with 0.6%, on a par with that of Salerno. And, in any case, among those for which a positive result is expected are also the provinces of Verbania and Asti (+ 0.3% both), in addition to those of Turin, Aosta and Imperia, all three with the increase in 0.1%.
Zero growth instead for Biella and negative forecast for all the other North West provinces: Genoa (-0.2%), Cuneo (-0.4%), La Spezia (-0.6%), Vercelli, Alessandria and Novara (-0.7%).
The latter are approaching the most critical situations, which will concern Pisa, Cagliari, Ragusa, Messina and Macerata (all with an expected growth of 0.8%), Enna and Rovigo (both with -0.9%) and Vibo Valentia (- 1%).
Finally, Cgia reports that there are many provinces that have not yet recovered the level of wealth they had in the pre-Covid period (2019). The situations of greatest delay can be seen in Siena (-1.9%), Prato (-2), Belluno (-2.2) and Pisa (-2.3). Finally, black jersey for the provinces of Campobasso and Vibo Valentia (-2.4).
As for the growth in 2022 over 2021 in the various provinces, the CGIA attributes 4.7% to Savona, 3.9% to Verbania and Asti, 3.5% to Turin, Genoa and Aosta, 3.3% in Biella, 2.9% in Cuneo, 2.1% in La Spezia and Alessandria, 2% in Vercelli and 1.8% in Novara.