A. Lukashenko – in the corner: what threats does this pose to Lithuania?
On Monday, Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka stated that a joint military unit is being formed with Russia, which will be deployed at the western border of Belarus. Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the National Security and Defense Committee of the Seimas, explained on the LNK program whether Lithuania should be worried about the joint Russian and Belarusian military unit.
A new threat to Lithuania?
“Apparently, for the time being, it should be regarded more as a certain political declaration, the implementing actions of which will be revealed soon. Let’s not forget that similar formations between the Belarusian forces and the Western District from the Russian side are already a certain reality even now. However, the West can say that the Russian part of the district has already lost a lot of capabilities in Ukraine, so it is difficult to say who will unite what here,” said L. Kasčiūnas.
“From my point of view, it is possible that A. Lukashenka is simply preparing partly his society, partly his elite for those 20 thousand. for the arrival and settlement of mobilized Russian citizens on the territory of Belarus – in fact, he simply creates the conditions for them to come to Belarus, be trained, trained, etc. What does this mean? In the short term, there is no major threat here. Later, we can not exclude all kinds of scenarios of the opening of a front against the Ukrainians in the northern direction up to Belarus, dependent on Russia, in order to transfer Russian military units there,” he explained from the beginning.
Full report – in the LNK video:
He added that there is currently no additional threat to either Lithuania or Poland.
“Of course, when such contingents arrive, we can say that there is a lot of risk of unintentional incidents, provocations, etc. Of course, Russia itself can surround Belarus, and in this way try to try to drag it into a war against Ukraine. But A. Lukashenka is well aware that his military forces are not the kind that could have a very large striking potential. I will remind you that for 25-30 years A. Lukashenko invested mainly in his internal affairs structure, which was supposed to preserve public loyalty, repress the opposition, but did not invest in the military forces,” said the Chairman of the NSGK.
According to him, the statement that Belarusians and Russians are establishing a joint military unit can be considered a sign that Russia is increasing its influence in Belarus. However, this does not necessarily mean that Belarus will enter the war – A. Lukashenka is trying to avoid this.
Are they capable of carrying out such attacks every day? No. I’m sure of that.
“But if we look at the first month of the war, when two-thirds of the missiles flew to Ukraine from Belarus, when Iranian drones came from Belarus, then, of course, A. Lukashenko is in the corner. V. Putin has cornered him. The big question is how much he can hold out. He perfectly understands one more thing – not only his capabilities are not so powerful, but also the fact that he can turn into a person responsible for protests in Belarus and turn against his assurance”, emphasized L. Kasčiūnas.
The Russian attacks on Monday were particularly intense, some of the most intense since the invasion began in February. There were reports from Western intelligence that Russia has already exhausted its reserve, but according to L. Kasčiūnas, Russia still has ammunition.
“But, of course, she is getting tired. Are they capable of carrying out such attacks every day? No. I’m sure of that. How many such one-off, brutal attacks can there be? They may still be there. But these are really depleting reserves, let’s not doubt that,” L. Kasčiūnas assured.
German brigade – in Lithuania
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in Lithuania in the summer, he signed a communique with Lithuanian President Gitan Nausėda. The chairman of NSGK explained what was agreed there.
“When it is ready, the German brigade will be here in Lithuania. But for that, Lithuania needs to build infrastructure, to connect the construction of the infrastructure plan with the modernization of the German Bundeswehr and the possibility of deploying a brigade in Lithuania. After connecting those graphs, move on. Certain intermediate formulas like the ten-day formula, for example, can only be a minimalistic scenario until we are ready. We will be ready in 2025. in July”, said L. Kasčiūnas.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gabrielius Landsbergis, criticized the Minister of National Defense, saying that he is withdrawing from this formulated commitment to deploy the brigade in Lithuania. However, L. Kasčiūnas emphasized that Lithuania has only one interest – the German brigade in Lithuania.
“I hear that there is no retreat, that we will work with double-digit, triple-digit efforts. The national defense system will work together with the interests of the entire state,” he emphasized.