‘Brussels trembles as nationalism revives’
Rise of ‘right-wing nationalism’ in Italy and Sweden could have major repercussions in the European Council, casting its shadow over the EU beyond 2024.
After the resounding victory of the right-wing bloc led by 45-year-old Giorgia Meloni in Italy – the third-largest economy in the European Union – the response from the mission in Brussels was not very positive, and at times downright shrill. Two weeks after the victory of the Sweden Democrats, election gains for a nationalist party win would once again smell of neo-fascism.
Liberal Belgian MEP and former Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt tweeted: ‘Tough times are ahead for Europe. (…) Division and instability are the last thing Europe needs.’ The VVD chief in the European Parliament, Malik Azmani, also gloated: ‘worrying, as expected, a far-right majority in Italy. That will be a nationalist conservative agenda.’ The Christian Democrats of the EPP right are developing quietly: Silvio Berlusconi (Forza Italia), who belongs to the Italian bloc, is a MEP and is part of the EPP group. Chef Ursula von der Leyen said in an interview just before the election, without naming Italy: “If things move in a fast direction – and I’ve talked about Hungary and Poland – we have the tools.’ she means: the EU billions that are only paid out under the rule of law.
Brussels trembles as nationalism revives.
The dogged reactions in Brussels are fueled by two fears: will unity against Russia remain intact in the European Council and can the traditional ‘middle parties’ continue to pull the strings in Brussels after May 2024?
Meloni is likely to form the Italian government. The formation will start with the opening session of parliament on October 13. The question is whether its position is strong enough for the government to be united when it comes to Russia. Meloni himself has always written the opposition unequivocally the aggression of Vladimir Putin.
Its coalition parties are right on the side of Russia. Former Prime Minister Berlusconi (86) has always been close with the Russian president. The other partner, Matteovini of the Lega party, used to wear T-shirts with Putin’s face and has been executed from taking money from Moscow. He is seen as the stooge of Russia.
The question is what will happen in the European Council of Heads of Government, if Sweden and Italy are governments that are seen as just as nationalistic as those of Poland and Hungary, for example. When it comes to Russia, Hungary is among the biggest troublemakers, struggling to underwrite every time. But what if Italy also starts to sputter? The dogged way in which Meloni brushed off French President Emmanuel Macron the day after her win because he had portrayed Italy as ‘cynical and irresponsible’, shows fireworks anyway.
If the right-wing successes continue, it will have major consequences for the balance of power in Brussels.
Another concern: Sweden holds the presidency of the European Council from January 1 to July 1, 2023, setting the agenda. There is no fear that the four will form one bloc in Brussels: they only work together if it is in their own interest. Just look at how the EU’s stance on the EU drove out Poland and Hungary, once a powerful duo in the Council.
The right-wing gains in Italy and Sweden also cast a shadow over the EU after the European elections in May 2024. Traditionally, the Christian Democrats and Socialists – and now the Liberals – divide the top jobs. Von der Leyen and Parliament Speaker Roberta Metsola are from the EPP. Metsola became chairman in early 2022, Italian socialist David Sassoli completed that position for two and a half years. The chairman of the Council, Charles Michel, is a Walloon liberal and can be counted as part of Renew, the group with VVD, D66, Verhofstadt and Macron’s party.
If the right-wing successes continue, it will have major consequences for the balance of power in Brussels. The Sweden Democrats and Fratelli d’Italia belong to the European Conatives and Reformists (ECR), of which the Belgian N-VA, JA21 and the SGP part of Parliament. Now the EPP is still the largest party with 21 percent, and the ECR has 9.2 percent. But with the current future sentiment, it is certainly not out of the question that the ECR will become the second party in 2024 and the EPP will fall back to fourth place. The Eurocritical ECR can be ignored if the Presidents of the Commission and Council are prevented.
The elephant in the room is the unbridled (asylum) migration targets many national governments nor ‘Brussels’ want to stop. The voter is not crazy. How can you influence the climate with a very expensive energy transition and not stop people without a visa at the external border of displaced persons and offer shelter in your own region? But you hear little in Brussels about the cause of the right-wing nationalist advance. Until May 2024 there are still parliamentary elections in at least seven upcoming and asylum migration will not decrease. Brussels trembles as nationalism revives.