At the bottom of the budgetary abyss, Belgium is now drifting towards the crisis of the regime (carte blanche)
Never has so much rage been spent so unanimously to spend money that does not exist, the white card of Franklin Dehousse, professor at the University of Liège.
Our pockets are not infinite”, justified Prime Minister De Croo in the face of the minimal results of the last Codeco on the energy crisis. With more accuracy, he could have explained: “Our pockets are already the most holed of the Western world”. If our governments prefer to maintain a poetic modesty to this eventuality, the International Monetary Fund, fortunately, has been doing the work for them for years.
In his last ” Financial Monitor » of the spring of 2022, his description of the structural deficit (i.e. not justified by the economic situation) of Belgium highlights constant degradation since 2017. It experienced a real explosion in 2020 (-7.4%) and became the worst in the euro zone. Above all, with the trajectory adopted, the projections systematically announce it as the worst until 2027 (-5.4% again for a Eurozone average of -1.7%).
The three stages of the debacle
In this debacle, three stages must be distinguished. First, unlike the council of European institutions, since 2014, the Michel government has not taken advantage of the prosperous years to clean up public finances. Bart De Wever’s manly speeches on balanced budgets were sacrificed for multiplier tax gifts (starting with Antwerp diamond dealers). His Finance Minister, Van Overveldt, “The man who was worth less than three billion”, has multiplied the holes. Then the Wilmes government greatly aggravated the situation in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. All the States spent a lot at that time, of course, but Belgium did it more, and worse. Finally, the De Croo government continues on this line.
The problem lies aggravated by the even greater degradation of the budget of the entities French speaking. The French Community and the Brussels Region are chronically in difficulty. The tumble began in the Walloon Region in 2014 with the Magnette government, which abandoned the caution of its predecessors. He piled up the deficits, and the Borsus government continued. This explains the weak Walloon response to successive crises (covid, floods, energy): the means, quite simply, no longer exist.
In stock of debt, the Belgian situation is not the worst. In deficit depth, it is. If the Belgian authorities have not yet been called to order, they owe a double windfall: the collapse of the interest rate and the suspension of the stability pact in the Eurozone. The ongoing debates at the European Central Bank, however, highlight the fragility of this position. The expenditure/revenue imbalance will sooner or later be untenable.
Francophone one-upmanship
One might think that such a threat would create a minimum of pedagogy for political representatives. It is not so. On the contrary, especially on the French-speaking side, we are witnessing a permanent one-upmanship delusional proposals. Thereby, Paul Magnette, under pressure from the PTB, multiply announcements, from inflated pensions in all directions to free transport. The president of the PS is fond of the look of Guevara (the most meticulously maintained unkempt beard in the country). In reality, he looks like the ghost of Guy Mathot, the great wrecker of public finances during the oil shocks. that Magnette leads his party, Guy Spitaels Since, who hated spooky promises, died a second time.
On the other side, Georges Louis Bouchez also multiply announcements, from colossal tax cuts (no less than eight billion) to miraculously reopened nuclear power plants. Since he led his party, it was Camille Gutt and Robert Henrion who died a second time. With the French-speaking mini-Trump, according to some Flemish colleagues, the liberalism has become socialism for the riches. Not to be outdone, the Environmentalists also have their staggering promises. Thus, Rajae Maouane offers a bonus of 30,000 euros to any young person celebrating their 25th birthday (an idea also defended by… Bouchez). As for Georges Gilkinet, he wants to assimilate part-time to full-time in the calculation of the pension.
Never has so much rage been expended so unanimously to spend money that doesn’t exist. All this without in the least studying the modalities, or evaluating the costs. Hedebouw does not need to enter the government: he has become the beacon of French-speaking thought. With the current francophone leaders, it is Saint Nicholas every day! They look like they are ready to destroy public finances to get three votes. It should come as no surprise if the careers of voters (which also have their contradictions) concluding that politicians are clearly more notorious for promoting their ministerial than that of the general interest.
Crucke, a different posture
Only one representative has recently adopted a different posture: Jean-Luc Crucke. The former Walloon budget minister launched a simple rearrangement (without creating a new tax) of Walloon taxation. Ten years after the 2011 state reform, this did not appear to be a luxury. His killing by his own party illuminates the danger of the slightest courageous speech of general interest. It is enough to read again the vociferations of Mrs. Marghem or the viperous remarks of Mrs. Wilmès For Sophie Wilmes, the text of Crucke “did not correspond at all to our political commitment”. One wonders if there is still someone who turned on Adam Smith in the Liberal Party. When French-speaking budgets collapse, history is likely to be more favorable to Mr. Crucke than to his critics, pathetic managers of energy or the pandemic.
It floats in the Belgium of the 2020s the same toxic scent as in the 1970s. memes financial aberrations, the same partisan excesses of power, the same forced refusal of reality. This explains the current tide of demands to have public authorities cover all increases in energy prices, an obviously impossible choice. Such a skid can only end in the same way, with a brutal austerity policy. There is a risk of collision with the community agenda, and the potential crisis of the regime.
Not Greece
Bart De Wever understood the potential benefits of this francophone slippage. According to the classic saying of financial crises, it is when the tide goes out that you see who is swimming naked. It would greatly amuse the president of the NVA to win in 2024 the great gutting of the Belgian state of which he dreams with presidents of French-speaking parties in loincloths. For this, however, it is necessary a) not to be too nibbled by Vlaams Belang and b) to have the necessary financial margins. The virtual bankruptcy of the State risks making this exercise more perilous. For the first time since 1970, public finances plan to not to be a collateral subject, but the main subject of state reform. But nothing derails attempts at reform more than acute financial crises. Ask Louis XVI.
Certainly, contrary to easy slogans, Belgium is not Greece. It still has a real industrial capacity, does not depend above all on tourism, and holds significant foreign assets (even if the mobilizers in the event of a crisis will not be at all simple). On the other hand, the French-speaking entities will find themselves in a situation that is supposed to be worse than Greece. Indeed, they have only a limited autonomy. Moreover, their loans, unlike those of the Member States, do not participate in the support programs of the European Central Bank.
Slowly, crises (covid, floods, energy, Ukraine,…) impoverish us in real terms. They all work in additional ways. Negligible interest rates hide this reality. They have become a cocaine which we have all become addicts to. Current French-speaking politicians, who have abandoned all sense of responsibility, ensure their career plan by providing it to us in large quantities, and we are constantly asking for more. In this collective denial extension of reality is the seed of very violent disillusions to come.