September it is a month characterized by the end of the summer period, a progressive delay of the pole and, nevertheless, some very hot mares. Circulation from mid-latitudes gradually starts to increase and low to lower latitudes.

It is therefore normal that throughout this month start to appear as the first Atlantic fronts and what how storms regain some prominence in part of the territory, especially on the North and Central coast.

A cooler than usual September is in sight

According to the drawing that we handle in the weatheredwhich are based on our model of confidence, the latest update indicates, contrary to what was initially expected, that September will be a mild period, often cooler than usualand with some regional thermal contrasts in mainland Portugal. As the map reveals, a large part of our country must register a negative thermal anomaly.

The temperature will register lower lower values ​​(-0.5°C) to the reference climatological normal entire countryexcept in the districts of Bragança and Lisbon. The great highlight of time – which will be, in most Portuguese territory, fresher than usual – go to western Algarve (western half of the district of Faro) and part of alentejo coast (west of the district of Beja). In these portions of the territory, national Negative thermal anomaly down to -1.5°C.

September with great regional contrasts in terms of supply?

The latest update to the maps we manage at Meteored brought monthly forecast changes for september and now it is expected that September 2022, in mainland Portugal, will register a huge relationship with the system of regional contrasts. This means that in some regions it will rain much more than usual and or unfortunately, dry weather and water resources coming from the skies will reach. The distribution of rain will therefore be quite different.

On the one hand, we will have Region of Minho, Douro Litoral and small portions of the districts of Vila Real and Aveiro with positive thermal anomaly with regard to importance. Between 10 and 30 mm of rain above normal is what is planned for the Alto Minho (Viana do Castelo), between 5 and 20 millimeters for the Lower Minho (Braga) and enter 5 and 10 millimeters to the district of Harbor. For small portions of the northwest districts of aveiro and Real Village a rainfall anomaly of up to 5 mm higher than usual.

On the “other side of the coin” will be like remaining regions of our countrywho continues to suffer from overwhelming effects of droughtmonthly, must be much more scarce and therefore wet weather will be a rarity throughout this month of september, predominating the lack of quantity or number of residual days. Taking into account NUTS II, this applies to the entire Metropolitan Area of Lisbon, Algarve, Alentejo and interior of the North and Center Regions. The values ​​of in this indication, in general, up to 5 mm will be below the areas of the country.

However, of all the aforementioned areas, Bragança districts will be the most worrisome, negative lack of water, with rainfall of -10 mm. Small parts of the districts of Coimbra and Portalegre may also register this value. already like areas marked in “white” on the map show parts of the territory where it is expected within the normal range for the September monthly assessment.

Azores with “very mixed” weather, Madeira within the standard

to the Archipelago of Azores Minimizing time is expected hotter do the normal and rain a lot. ONE Positive thermal anomaly will be up to +0.5 °C throughout this island region.

Concerning assignmentguess one very busy month in the nine azorean islands (positive rainfall anomaly between 5 and 20 mm in the Central and Eastern Groups, with the greatest emphasis being the possibility of belonging to the Island of São Miguel). How the Islands do crow and flowers they are painted in white in cartography, so the rain values required fall within the reference climatological normal.

About the Madeira Archipelagothis month of september should not reserve big “surprises” from a meteorological point of view given that, both at the level of the forecast map of the Monthly mean temperature anomalyas at the level of the forecast map of the monthly average notethe territories belonging to this Autonomous Region are completely covered in white — meaning this, that no significant anomalies are expected.

Are these models reliable?

It should be noted that these modelsno matter how advanced and developed you hire, are not fault-free. The state of the art of forecasting does not allow to prepare budgets and deterministic in a period superior to 5 or 7 days and the prediction errors in the models grew over time. Therefore, it is necessary to approach these solutions with caution, seeing them as trends in Climatology.