Less rain and more heat waves: this will be Hungary’s climate in fifty years
7
Many meteor records were broken in Hungary this summer, and phenomena such as the extreme drought or the increased number of brush and forest fires have entered the daily news feed here as well. These are not outliers, but fit into a much longer trend, and cases that still seem extreme today may become commonplace in the future. It’s a climate forecast Diagonally.
The National Meteorological Service (OMSZ) expanded this year in March climate change data according to the pessimistic scenario, the temperature in Hungary will rise by 1.5-2.1 degrees, the hot day, heat waves and days without rain will increase rapidly, and winter will end.
These changes will not affect all regions in the same way: according to the climate models used by the OMSZ, for example, there will be parts of Hungary where the average monthly rainfall will increase. The part of our country most exposed to climate change is North-East Hungary and South-East Hungary, i.e. the eastern-southern regions of the Nység and the Great Plain. In terms of heat, those who live in mountains or along lakes and rivers will probably fare better – but not by much. it is also worth noting that climate change – at least based on these data – not only means that the effects will already be extreme in the affected regions, but also that the territorial extent of the effects will also increase.
The district-level climate maps of the OMSZ were processed on the maps.
The OMSZ methodological summary describes in detail the advantages and disadvantages of the climate models and calculations they use, as well as the limits of the methodology. OMSZ for the maps of the regional climate model REMO model uses its pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5). In this material, in each case, we show the mean values calculated by the OMSZ for this scenario. However, it is important to note that other, more than twenty climate model scenarios for the REMO pessimistic scenario used by OMSZ for most comparable meteorological phenomena (average temperature, precipitation) he expects more severe spillovers to Hungary as well.
Hungary does the least for climate protection within the EU according to the Climate Change Performance Index | atlatszo.hu
Based on its climate policy indicator, Hungary is among the last 10 countries. The country’s regressive role in relation to the EU plays a central role in the experts’ assessment in this area, which only contains the EU’s ambitions, but prevents the EU from taking a proactive position in international negotiations.
Changes in the annual average temperature – in North-Eastern Hungary, the annual average temperature may increase by more than 2 °C in the next fifty years (click on the images for a larger view!)
Change in summer annual average temperature – summer average temperatures will increase everywhere.
Change in the number of hot days – from 2071, there will be a part of Hungary where the temperature reaches 30 degrees on 197 days.
Changes in the number of rainy days – the biggest decrease is expected in South-West Hungary.
look at the complete material on the diagonal:
Hungary’s climate in fifty years
Many meteor records were broken in Hungary this summer, and phenomena such as the extreme drought or the increased number of brush and forest fires have entered the daily news feed here as well. These phenomena are not outliers, but fit into a much longer trend, and these phenomena, which are still extreme today, may become common in the future.