Ukraine war: sanctions against Putin – now Austria is shaking
Sanctions against Putin – now Austria is shaking
In Austria there is no longer a majority for sanctions against Russia, and this trend is likely to intensify in winter. The pressure on Chancellor Nehammer is growing, and there is even talk of new elections. The right-wing nationalist and Putin-friendly FPÖ, on the other hand, is getting a tailwind.
Is that just a slip or already a foretaste of winter in Germany and Europe? In Austria, in view of rising energy prices and high inflation, the mood in terms of Russia sanctions is turning. According to a new survey for the newspaper “Standard”, 40 percent of Austrians are predominantly (18 percent) or definitely (22 percent) against continuing the sanctions imposed as a result of the Ukraine war. Only 46 percent currently support the punitive measures.
In Brussels, the development in Austria is viewed with concern. In EU diplomatic circles, one wonders whether the mood in Germany, the Netherlands or Italy will soon change. One thing is certain: European consumers are only likely to feel the energy price explosion, which is largely due to the reduced natural gas exports from Russia, in their wallets in autumn and winter.
This could then lead to heated debates in several member states, a diplomat said. “Then even the sanctions as a whole could be called into question.” A scenario that would play into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin – but might seem conceivable. Because the EU decision on sanctions requires unanimity. In addition, the sanctions must be renewed every six months.
In Austria, the debate is currently picking up speed. According to a survey by APA/ATV, 42 percent of Austrians do not believe that the sanctions against Russia will have an effect – “neither now nor in the future”. On the other hand, only 28 percent expect a medium- or long-term effect.
“Don’t want the law of the jungle”
How will the coalition of the conservative ÖVP and the Greens react to this mood? A week ago, Chancellor Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) said anyone calling for the sanctions against Russia to be lifted was “irresponsible”. The Foreign Ministry said: “The sanctions are working – a little more every day (…) We want a rule-based world order, not the law of the jungle, where the stronger can simply get what they want.” But for days now it has been increasing the pressure on Nehammer.
In the latest Sunday polls, the ÖVP is doing poorly and would only get 21 to 22 percent in parliamentary elections, depending on the institute. The Social Democrats (SPÖ), on the other hand, are between 28 and 30 percent. The right-wing national FPÖ is currently breathing down the neck of the ÖVP with currently 20 to 22 percent.
Unlike the ÖVP, the Freedom Party is strictly against sanctioning Russia. Should the mood in the country continue to turn against the punitive measures imposed, the ÖVP risks being overtaken by the FPÖ soon. That would be a nightmare for the ruling party.
Four state elections are just around the corner. In September there will be elections in Tyrol, next spring in Lower Austria, Carinthia and Salzburg. The ÖVP is already threatened with disaster in its traditional strongholds of Tyrol (2018: 44.2 percent) and Lower Austria (2018: 49.6 percent), the forecasts predict results of only around 30 percent for the conservatives, who were formerly used to success.
The Austrian media and the opposition have been speculating for weeks about the end of Chancellor Nehammer and early elections. Parliament President Wolfgang Sobotka (ÖVP) speaks in this context of a “campaign of annihilation against the ÖVP”. Nevertheless: The mood is so heated that even from the point of view of ÖVP insiders, the new elections, which are actually only scheduled for the end of 2024, could already take place this year.
First fall in the ÖVP
So it’s no wonder that the sanctions front in the ÖVP is beginning to crumble, while the Green coalition partner has so far been unperturbed. Upper Austria’s governor (Prime Minister) Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP) recently said with regard to the sanctions against Russia: “Nothing is set in stone.”
And he adds: “Because before a situation arises in which our lives are massively endangered, we must of course think about whether this or that effective sanction is currently being continued.” Tyrol’s ÖVP boss Anton Mattle seconded Stelzer. He was “open” to his suggestion. Austria is facing turbulent weeks.