Liudas Dapkus. How will Lithuania defend itself against Russian saboteurs?
It’s been a year, our long fence will be finished soon. Illegal immigrants continue to be successfully sent back. The policy of turning away immigrants will be included in the national legislation in the fall, providing an opportunity for the “Amnesty International” klatchiks to issue another report on the “gross violation of human rights in Lithuania”. Will be able to roll that paper into a tube and stick it where it belongs.
It is possible that at that time, not our border will be more important, but a building of another purpose, located far from Lithuania. A symbol of peace beloved by useful idiots is the Kerch Bridge, through which the Russian occupiers still send their war machine to the occupied Crimea. An obvious and legitimate target of Ukraine, which is fighting for its survival.
The destruction of the bridges is a significant part of the third phase of this war, and the liberation of the Russian-occupied peninsula could be the turning point and the beginning of the collapse of the Kremlin regime. Their attack finally stalled. It will no longer be possible to seize new territories. The losses will only increase. The Kremlin understands this very well, which is why they are looking for a long stay of up to several months. Maybe it is possible to freeze the conflict in Europe after two visits? Maybe there will be a harsh winter, the “geiropa” voters will panic, and the government will no longer support Ukraine?
This is their plan. Plus – the annexation of the captured territories and the defense of Crimea. So far, it is real and feasible, since the delusions of February about a lightning war and the capitulation of Kiev in three days. At the front, the relative balance of power is still a long way off. Everything depends on the readiness of the Western capitals to end this war before winter. More specifically, the threshold of a psychologist, after crossing which they would start supplying weapons of such power that would help destroy the enemy’s forces and the entire territory, from Sevastopol to Kharkiv.
Unfortunately, the threshold (especially for Washington) remains too high, it is constant billions of support and loud statements. Weapons are being supplied, but given their quantity and nature, it is easy to see that this is a battlefield simulation of the situation. Without thinking about what will happen after both sides are in the winter trenches for a long time. With missiles of the current range, the Ukrainians can destroy the occupier’s warehouses in the rear for a long and boring time, but unfortunately, this will not be enough for a counterattack.
Realizing the situation, Moscow will do everything to drag out the slow war until the winter, maybe for a year. Or even longer. For this to happen, they need informational, diplomatic and various attacks against the West. Including Lithuania, which the Kremlin has included in its top five enemies. It’s a nice achievement, you know. But only until the cornered rat starts biting everyone around it. First of all, those who are less prepared and closest.
The initiative supported by the Baltic countries, Finland, Poland and other partners on freezing the visa regime for Russian citizens is very important, but delayed. The traffic still flowing from the terrorist state is motley and potentially dangerous.
The initiative supported by the Baltic countries, Finland, Poland and other partners on freezing the visa regime for Russian citizens is very important, but delayed. The traffic still flowing from the terrorist state is motley and potentially dangerous. The “good Russians” who, due to the short-sightedness of the government, or perhaps even worse reasons, let their tenth in Georgia, where there is already a powerful fifth column. Today they can innocently program tank games, and tomorrow they will be outraged by the restriction of rights and respond to FSB proposals to “do this and that”. Exploding real tanks and warehouses.
Diverse groups need – one more dozen motivated insiders waiting for the order to act will suffice.
There are increasing signs that these tension processes will start sooner or later, and the war in Ukraine will go beyond its territory. It is possible that it will first spread to Russia, and then – already according to the right and ideas.
When can this happen? First of all, a lot depends on the events in Crimea. In order to understand the psychology of the “ordinary Russian”, two essential factors must be taken into account. For the past 20 years, one simple thought has been hammered into his head – yes, they may live better in the West, but you are a better person than those poor people. The truth is on your side, good pure Russian man. And that’s enough for the Russian.
The historic victory was secured by a bridge. In the Russian mind, it is much more than a way to get to an occupied beach. This is a sign of power. A monument to the victory of good people over evil.
The second factor is that the Russian lives in poverty and without any light, he needs moral compensation, which he expects from his “great state”: I live like this, maybe poorly, but this is what my homeland can do! This need was amply satisfied by Putin’s scandal in Crimea in 2014. The crowds are calmed, uplifted and focused. The historic victory was secured by a bridge. In the Russian mind, it is much more than a way to get to an occupied beach. This is a sign of power. A monument to the victory of good people over evil.
At the same time, this building is the Achilles heel of the entire regime. When it collapses, the house of cards, built by Putin for so long on human bones, also collapses. Pala, what have we been doing for 20 years if we are not even able to protect our territories? Such a question will arise even in the darkest minds of the cotton army. This people will not rebel – they are completely wrapped up. But the best links will break. The assassins of the FSB, GRU and Putin’s personal guard will be at each other’s throats.
Indirect signs of this struggle can be seen already, although the liberation of Crimea is still a distant prospect. The murder of Dasha Dugina, which Russian propaganda immediately used as a weapon against Ukraine, is the beginning of a new bloody chapter in Russian history. In any case, the already completely insignificant character probably became a victim of the friction of power centers, and the explosive was not even intended for her, but for her father. The FSB storytellers, who at first spun a very naive and very easily debunking lie about a contract killer with a child, black glasses and a stylish car, only justified themselves in the name of a completely desperate, but still dangerous organization.
Remember blunt and even blunter? Those two FSB agents who were later interviewed by the famous Simonian. After the poisoning of the Skripals in England, those muggles were ordered to do interviews. Like penguins in cotton jackets passing all the security cameras on the streets of Salisbury. agents Boshirov and Petrov talked about staying in the famous town to admire the cathedral tower. The whole world laughed. But nothing has changed there.
The same Simonian, after the bombing of Dugina, immediately issued a call for special agents to volunteer to go to Tallinn to inspect the towers. Understand, Estonia, allegedly hiding a hired killer, must feel safe because “winter is coming”. This message from the mother of Russian fascism is primarily intended for the domestic market. However, the regime unfortunately throws not only words, but also explosives. Therefore, as events are moving in such a direction, Lithuania should draw conclusions and take certain actions.
First. Russian tourists must not stay here. Immediately. The whole EU does not want it – let’s be alone with our neighbors who are not so good.
Second. The liquefied gas terminal in Klaipėda, the Būtingė oil terminal, essential electricity transmission nodes, the dismantled nuclear power plant and other strategic state objects must be protected in the strictest regime. You want to believe that this has been done for a long time.
Such nonsense can no longer be afforded, that Russian agents sitting in Lithuanian prisons would conclude contracts over the phone, their organizations would write applications for support and receive it, and the “diplomats” of this terrorist state would continue to operate in our cities in accordance with the plans of the FSB and GRU.
Third. Agents of influence are monitored much more seriously than it has been until now. Such nonsense can no longer be afforded, that Russian agents sitting in Lithuanian prisons would conclude contracts over the phone, their organizations would write applications for support and receive it, and the “diplomats” of this terrorist state would continue to operate in our cities in accordance with the plans of the FSB and GRU.
Without doing this homework, Lithuania may wake up one winter morning to a loud thunderclap and a belated realization that independence is proportional to the nation’s determination to defend it with all its might.
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