Necessary interest rate increases in Poland? Perhaps
- Throughout 2022, economic growth may reach 4.5%, but the pace of growth is clearly slowing down. It should be possible to avoid a recession
- PIE expects a slow slow process and it will however be a gradual slow process. We are just beginning to see a greater rise in price increases
- At the beginning of the year he proposes inflation a new exhibition time due to the strong energy prices
- Experts do not expect an interest rate hike in September. However, the increased cost of money will last a long time
- More such information can be found on the main page of Onet.pl
– Data that the Polish economy is slowing down. GDP growth in the second hedges from a record 5.6 5.3 percent. They also inhibit industrial production and retail sales. According to PIE, the second half of the year will complement economic activity, but one solid result. We expect a total GDP growth of around 4.5% in 2022. The plan of the year may reach 2.5 percent. – says Piotr Arak, director of PIE.
Add that there was a positive surprise in the growth of enterprises, solidity in the labor market and that one should not pay attention to the increase in employment, treatment of new employment.
PIE experts do not expect a recession in Poland. – Economic activity in 2023 will be largely measured by investment. The weakest construction results at the beginning of the year – will be reduced fuel, fuel in stocks and price stocks. second, in the first year of injury regulation 2023 – considered to be Arak.
Recent readings of papers accelerated in comparison to the year. Preliminary data for August will be released on Wednesday. BELIEVES that inflation in the forecasts was similar to the previous months and stood at 15.7%. (in July the CPI index accelerated to 15.6% from 15.5% in June). – I mean the symptom is the stabilization of the base. We also see assembly issues included in the price. Therefore, we expect a slow process that will apply, but there will be more price increases wait in the beginning, says Arak.
See also: The MPC came closest to that. Weak zloty may thwart the plans of President Adam Glapiński
In the event of a decision on the level of interest rates, the Monetary Policy Council will meet for 7 decisions. PIE experts do not expect a raise on this house. – Economic data results that the economy is holding back. The number of new mortgage loans is also falling rapidly. In such conditions, it is unlikely to raise interest rates. Therefore, elevated inflation means that the current rates will pay off with us in the coming quarters Arak argues.
The MPC raised the NBP reference rate from 0.1% in ten steps from October 2021 to July 2022. to 6.5 percent, a level difficulty for almost 20 years.
What impact may winter have on inflation and what is the effect of energy increases? – The first drops were recorded in the fall, but one of them was due to increases in the heating sector. At the beginning of the year, he proposes a new and new inflation – there will be effective energy resources and effects. We still do not fully know the possibilities of remedial measures taken: any support was lowered by the votes of the head of price increases – PIE. In his case, inflation only in the case of below the 10th statement of the year may percentage decrease.
See also: reveals on Radio Maryja what to do with the interest rate increases
He adds that Polish economic performance remains solid compared to the EU. The European Commission predicts that Poland will be among the five countries to increase this year. We also have one of the strongest growths in personality since the outbreak of the pandemic. – In total, the fourth quarter of 2019 not only suprarobidemic losses, but also the Polish economy by 5.8. Cash will have an impact on the next Polish economy. We estimate that the KPO allowed to add approx. 1 percentage point. GDP growth in payments and 1.3 percentage points. in 2024 – says Piotr Arak.