Macroeconomic situation – Poland and the world. The Monetary Policy Council will ease its attitude?
photo. Cross-platform material
Last week, we got to know the full set of card data from Poland since July
Apart from the plans in the labor market, they were below expectations. Both industrial production (+ 7.6% y / y against 7.8% consensus and 10.4% in the case) and retail sales (+ 18.4% y / y in the current year, but only + 2.0% y / y). high y / y – further expectations for growth and 3.2% y / y (y / y), surprised services. It was similar in the case of assembly and assembly production (+ 4.2% y / y with + 6.1% consensus and + 5.9% in construction).
Let’s sign up, so the steps from the sale of the global network for the first half of the year will flow
This tendency was confirmed by the preliminary initial exchange point for the second quarter. On a year-to-year basis, it recorded a solid 5.3% growth, it was in a stable period (+ 6.3%) and the setting from the first quarter (+ 8.5% y / y). In floral terms for Europe (-2.3%), declines from stronger declines in the second chart in Europe. the beginning of 9 people’s work above the data was the market where companies grew by 2.3% y / y (expected 2.1%, compared to 2.2% in June). High data on growth (+ 15% y / y 13.2% y / y 13.2% in points, 2013) wages also 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 with payments of bonuses and bonuses in such power plants, energy or forestry.
Thus, they set the level of persistent paid attitudes at a solid level
In light of having created the prospect of economic growth in the world, including one that is expected to bring the euro, a new country is expected that can be designed to be heir, in your place, in the country this and next year up to 4.5% and 0.5% against 5.5% and 1.5%, respectively. We expected that the amount of GDP would be reduced by the end of this year. and the economy will return to construction at the turn of winter and the appointment of the year.
Existing own safeguards that inflation inflation will persist in upcoming investments
We estimate that at the end of this year, CPI inflation is hovering around 15% y / y / at the beginning of the year it will increase by 10% annually. The forecast for 2023 is inconsistent with this decision because of the proceeds due to the management of decisions to exclude the tariff and the tariff for the purchase of electricity and electricity. In the final decision in these changes it was stated that you choose decisions that can be selected by 10pp. In our case, we are dealing with the basic layout that the layouts under the Layout Scenarios focus on installation to the records of the year, electricity and gas bills will increase from installation by about 25%.
We believe that amidst safe activity, the Monetary Policy Council will ease its attitude and this year it will raise the NBP reference rate by a maximum of 50bp to 7.00%. However, we think the council can do to tighten its company, gathered in 2023, when we start gaining momentum again. It is mainly related to our anticipation of the zloty weakening in the coming months. In order to obtain the necessity to create new percentage earnings by 100bp, 8.00% in addition to the months of 2023, a little bit for the next year’s reference year, it is worth referring to the NBP after to get 7.00%.
In the forefront of communities, global navigators caught the attention of the publication of the preliminary August PMI estimates in major global communities
From the beginning of the year, the industrial sector was slowing down. The decrease is to the euro, where the value is 50 below the dropped point, the level of expansion from expansion. It is mapped, among others, by the weakening zone boundary in Germany where corresponds and the service PMI were placed. On the other hand, in the United States, the PMI remained above 50 points despite the recent declines.
Apart from their comments, they will focus on the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole
The event kicks off Thursday August 25 with the result coming Saturday August 27. The first steps were introduced this week on the ITC website. According to the Fed, there is still little that inflation will noticeably slow down as there was still a possibility of presence. This recommends that the Fed keep its hawkish stance. On the other hand, it was noted in minutes that it would be possible to introduce slightly milder measures, ie less aggressive hikes than there is no pre.