Sweden vs Finland WJC Semi Final Picks and Predictions
Finland has a long period of success in hockey, with two titles already this year. With Sweden standing in the way of the world junior finals, the Finns’ quest for a third title will be complicated – explain our picks.
Fresh off a pair of golds at the Beijing Olympics and the IIHF World Championships, Finland looks to stay on top of the hockey podium with a semi-final win over rival Sweden as -170 favourites.
With another close game expected, special teams will be the difference Thursday night, but do the defensive-minded Swedes have the edge in that department?
Find out in my free WJC picks and predictions for Sweden vs Finland, with puck drop on August 19.
Sweden vs Finland odds
Sweden | Finland | |
---|---|---|
+138 | Moneyline | -170 |
+0.5 (-112) | Puck line | -0.5 (-108) |
Over 5.5 (-115) | Total | Under 5.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel on August 18, 2022.
Sweden vs Finland predictions
Predictions made on 18/8/2022 at 3 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to go to the full analysis.
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Sweden vs Finland game information
• Place: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Friday, August 19, 2022
• Puck drop: 6 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Sweden vs Finland picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and the total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
Arguably the biggest rivalry in international hockey will take place in Edmonton on Thursday night, as the favored Finns take on their Swedish counterparts in the WJC semi-finals.
There is no love lost between the two Scandinavian nations on the ice, and although the Finns come in as favorites and are quite an international heater, with gold medals in the Olympics and World Cup of Hockey this calendar year, Sweden will show up on Thursday night.
Of the four big countries (Canada, USA, Finland and Sweden), Sweden’s play through five matches in the tournament has been the weakest. They narrowly escaped the quarter-finals with a 2-1 win over Latvia and have scored just 17 goals. But with many projected penalties in the heated game, Sweden has an edge.
The Finns have scored 27 goals in the tournament, but 13 of them have come on the power play. There is a strong dependence on the man advantage, and if we see a parade in the penalty box, the Swedes have been elite when it comes to the penalty kill.
Sweden is 15-for-16 on PKs through five games and couple that with a very successful power play that is 7-for-15. Swedish PP will see a Finnish PK that has been terrible so far in Edmonton killing penalties at 50%.
This game will be very close at even strength and will be decided with the man advantage. Sweden has tallied goals at 47% on PP and death penalty at 94%. Both teams have had success on the power play, but the Swedish penalty man will be the difference.
When these two teams met at the Olympics in February, a total of five power play goals were scored and 10 penalties, including one major, were awarded. Sweden lost that game in overtime but later avenged the loss at the IIHF World Championships with a 3-2 OT win over Finland.
In what I expect to be an even match, despite the Finns having the talent edge, I’m running the Swedes at +0.5, meaning if Sweden can at least take this game to overtime, I’ll take money.
Prediction: Sweden +0.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Covers hockey game analysis
Over/Under analysis
With a total of 5.5 not including overtime and some success on the power play, I’m out of this total.
Both teams have relied heavily on the power play so far in the tournament, as Finland has scored 48% of their goals with the man advantage, and Sweden has scored seven of their 17 goals with the extra striker.
This match could be similar to the 4-3 Sweden win in the Olympics that produced five PP goals, or it could be a tightly controlled match more like the 3-2 match at the WHC.
The offensive gap between these two teams is quite large, as the Finns are the far more attacking team and have seen at least seven goals in each of their five matches. The Swedes are the exact opposite and have only conceded eight goals through five games.
I expect the Swedes to dictate the game at even strength, which will stifle offensive results. However, the possibility of multiple power-play goals is a risk for the Under 5.5s I don’t take — but I’m leaning towards it because the market doesn’t include overtime.
Prediction: Under 5.5 (-116 at Coolbet)
highest bid
With the Swedes having a big edge in killing penalties while also having a power play that scores goals at the same rate as the Finns, it’s hard not to put our money on Sweden.
Thanks to a shaky quarterfinal game that could actually benefit Sweden, as it gave them the experience of playing in a close do-or-die game, we get a good price on the underdogs as Finland has been heavily taxed throughout the tournament.
The last two times these nations have met in a major international competition, both games have gone into extra time, as the rivalry should close the edge that Finland has in terms of talent.
Taking Sweden at +0.5 means a draw or victory in the regulations is a winning ticket.
Pick: Sweden +0.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
WJC hockey parlays
Did you know that if you matched today’s choice between Sweden and Finland, you could win $24.97 on a bet of $10?