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“Joint Transitional Cabinet”: Azarov, Latushko, Tikhanovskaya, Kovalevsky, Sakhashchik. Frame video
This week Vilnius hosted a conference of the Belarusian democratic forces “New Belarus”, which was supposed to give hope for a way out of the obvious protracted crisis. Of course, it was possible to update the image and surprise.
The Belarusian democratic forces have been in crisis for a long time, since the autumn of 2020. From the moment when it became clear that there are no borders with the dictatorship of forces. Mass strikes, which no one seriously organized organizationally, not, the battered street thinned out, going out to protest every time looked more like a ritual sacrifice. And those coming from the leaders of emigration ideas – on the way of a naive spell of reality, but not on the result of systemic work.
The full extent of the crisis was avoided at first by postponing the protests to the spring of 2021. The democratic forces, as it were, officially went into hibernation, what is the demand from them. Then a whole series of “black swans” diverted attention. Artificial “migration crisis” on the borders of Belarus and the EU, forced landing caused by Ryanair, Russian military maneuvers on the borders of Ukraine, energy crisis, Taliban takeover of Afghanistan…
But not so much that they are completely forgotten. Tens of thousands of the repressed, hundreds of thousands of prisoners detained in the park of the Soviet period, now with a strict regime, could not simply take and forget the assurances that all this would not last long and was about to end. These are the objective prerequisites for the crisis.
There were, of course, observables: people with ambitions more pronounced than vacancies in Tikhanovskaya’s headquarters, someone not in the president’s fetishization of “peaceful protest”, someone accused Tikhanovskaya of monopolizing leadership, and someone – of unwillingness to take responsibility. And just personal hostility, like the work of agents, has not been canceled. Dissatisfaction and criticism, sometimes turning into swearing, sounded at the headquarters from different sides.
It was no longer possible to ignore these voices. The war against Ukraine that began this year, in which Belarus turned into the role of a co-aggressor, aggravated the situation to the utmost. It is obvious that not only the fate of political prisoners and the prospect of a transition from dictatorship to necessity were at stake, but also the fate of the Belarusian people, the independent belonging of the country. For which Tikhanovskaya’s headquarters is also responsible, if she is already “Madam President-elect.”
President Tikhanovskaya is not ready for a sole entry: she once again rejected the ultimatum demand made at the conference to take the oath. But willingly ready to share the responsibility. Therefore, the creation of a “Joint Transitional Cabinet” was announced. De facto, we are talking about a government in exile, but the status of “exiles” Tikhanovskaya superstitiously prefers control.
The body is in the process of formation. So far, representatives of the four members responsible for the transit of his power, the restoration of the law, the defense and restoration of relations in Belarus are known. They represent a period of six months, after which their candidacies must be used or rejected by the collegiate body.
Three figures out of four were a surprise.
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Pavel Latushko – in the past, the Minister of Culture headed one of the opposition structures in the fall of 2020, worked in tandem with Tikhanovskaya, but was often perceived as her competitor, dissatisfied with his secondary role; in the created cabinet is responsible for the transit of power. -
Valery Kovalevsky – former diplomat, charge d’affaires of Belarus in the USA, World Bank consultant; at the headquarters of the Tikhanov region to investigate relations, in particular, he led a special on the opening of a representative office in Ukraine, in the office he will do the same. -
Alexander Azarov – Police lieutenant colonel, former head of the department for combating extremism of the odious GUBOPiK, currently suppressing the initiative of the former BYPOL security officials; the creator of the “Peramoga” plan, an underground people’s militia, according to his statement, about 200 thousand Belarusians joined the family; in the cabinet will be ready for the restoration of the rule of law.
All three (albeit to varying degrees) are well recognized, but about the fourth one might well be asked: hu from Mr. Sakhaschik? Before that, few people knew about the person who will be available in the office for national security and “the actual de-occupation of the country”.
- Valery Sakhashchik – lieutenant colonel of the reserve of the Airborne Forces, former commander of the 38th Airborne Assault Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which is based in Brest. Far enough in the past. Sakhashchik retired twenty years ago, in 2002, at the age of 38. When they write about him as a “legendary brigade commander”, they do not mean feats, but the complex special test he created for the honorary title “Black Eagle”. And proximity to the soldiers.
According to Sahashchik, the structure has become not such a “palace intrigue”. No politics. Until 2020, he had nothing to do with her. In the hot 2020, Sahashchik announced August to himself, but the quality is absolutely not unambiguous. Judging by his interview Brest edition, together with a group of paratroopers, he acted as a mediator between the protesters and the security forces. From the story, the impression was that he preferred a voluntary “druzhinnik” who held back the protesters.
That story did not receive wide resonance. Therefore, Sakhashchik’s measurement on February 27 video message to the Belarusian military, in which he was going to prevent participation in the war against Ukraine, and for most it was his first appearance in case of an accident.
However, it did not have any visible continuation, Sakhaschik again goes into the shadows. He was remembered in the near future after the Forum of Democratic Forces in Berlin, which gathered part of Tikhanovskaya’s headquarters. Within this forum Vadim Prokopiev – one of the most charismatic media people in Belarusian politics, the implementation of a forceful solution to the main Belarusian problem – said that Tikhanovskaya should become “Queen Elizabeth”, who will “drink tea with Biden”, and the “Belarusian Churchill”, the head of military office. Prokopiev, they say, has a contender for this role, and it is not himself. A person who in Ukraine “recognizes everyone at the checkpoint.” Some guessed itthat we are talking about Sahashchik, although there were other versions.
Valery Sakhashchik. Video message frame
Prokopiev was previously among the deputy commanders of the Pagonya regiment, one of the Belarusian volunteer units that are fighting on the side of Ukraine. Who commands the regiment is still a mystery, there is no public information about this. A number of media believe that this is Lieutenant Colonel Sakhashchik.
Curiously, the Sakhaschik in Vilnius announced that he had enlisted the support of Zenon Pozniak. This is the patriarch of Belarusian politics, one of the “fathers” of Belarusian independence, one of the first political emigrants. A man who during his lifetime became a myth and a meme. Like the robot Bender, Poznyak seems to hate everyone in general, appointing every Belarusian politician as an agent of the KGB and the Kremlin. Once he was a bogey of official Belarusian propaganda, like Stepander or “Yarosh’s business card” for Russia; subsequently propagandists began to use caustic and ruthless statements for their own purposes. About Tikhanovskaya, for example, Poznyak recently said that he would “get to know her when she is arrested in Belarus.”
All this creates intrigue and raises questions. But the intrigue gives some hope, and in any case, this is better than stagnation. For all the uncertainty about the status of the “Joint Transitional Cabinet”, it looks like a more solid structure than Tikhanovskaya’s headquarters has been until now. It also clearly managed to stop the centrifugal forces, while not handing out portfolios just to silence critics. Most of the commentators took the outcome of the conference positively, with the exception of the very irreconcilable ones. There has been a clear and, it seems, a real move away from a stubborn action towards a “peaceful protest.” And now the issue of creating a Belarusian army abroad is being seriously discussed at the level of leaders.
Selling fish or just kitchen – remains to be seen. But so far beautiful.