Norges Bank does not need to rent in 2023 – E24
Chief Economist Frank Jullum at Danske Bank believes that it is appropriate that Norges Bank governs at three of the four meetings that remain this year.
Interest rate increases in the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), together with the high inflation we are now observing, will slow down global growth and mean that Norges Bank will no longer need to hold interest rates in 2023.
This is what Danske Bank’s chief economist, Frank Jullum, told the news agency TDN Direkt on Friday.
Jullum believes that Norges Bank will raise the rent by 0.5 percentage points, or 50 basis points, at the interim meeting next week, but that the increases will be only 25 points per meeting until the end of the year.
– If Norges Bank stops, it is because things will get much worse in the autumn. The extreme pressure we see now will be more back to normal towards the end of the year, says Jullum to E24.
Jullum believes rent will be 2.25 per cent at the end of the year.
– It will be above the normal interest rate, and then you have reached a level where it starts to work, says the chief economist to E24.
Among other things, he points out that rent increases from the US central bank, the European central bank and several others, together with the rise in prices, will slow down global growth sufficiently that, in any case, the US central bank will not increase rent again next year.
– Global growth and inflation are clearly on the way down, he says to TDN Direkt.
– With lower global price impulses and the effects of higher rents and high inflation in Norwegian – and remember, we expect 150 basis points higher rents in Norway within six months – we do not think it will be necessary to increase rents further in 2023, continues Jullum.
The consensus among the seven financial TDN Direkte has been in contact is that rent will be 2.75 per cent at the end of the year.