What will be the impact of the German “gas shock” on the Polish economy?
Let’s help Ukraine – you can help too!
The German government expects that after yesterday’s routine inspection of Nord Stream and the delivery of the gas pipeline, higher supply will resume – yesterday in Berlin, the German substitute administration, Christiane Hoffmann.
A spokeswoman did not want to comment on the sale of Vladimir Putin, said Gazprom would continue to reduce the volume of supplies via NS1 from the end to the end, unless a repaired turbine can be retrieved from Canada back into the pipeline. During the last break during the maintenance break, Gazprom reduced the overburdening of NS1 by nearly 60 percent.
According to the Reuters agency, NS1 is responsible for over 30 percent. supply of Russian natural gas to the European Union.
According to the anonymous sources we refer to the agenda, the pipeline is to resume work on time, but with the capacity available. “Kremlin-controlled energy giant Gazprom limited in 40 exports to this tree, after crossing the route on the list in the couch” – “Kremlin control of the energy giant in the land” before July 11.
The Russian company pro puts further working conditions on the Nord Stream gas pipeline. 1. The company will work that it expects the German Siemens to fulfill its service turbine contracts differently, which, like the Gazprom Act, are binding on the gas pipeline’s mandate. The Russians managed to do one job, despite the implementation of sanctions to return Gazpromo serviced by Siemens – link in Germany. Germany suspects that now they may not add enough exports to Russia, thus calls for Berlin to start exporting Ukraine and exports from US exports .
According to Eurostat data (see chart), 35.8% The gas comes from gas in German gas. heated gassing as an energy source is in command and ranges from 6 percent. in the production of wood and wood up to 55 percent. in the production of articles, beverages and beverages. However, these percentages are not directly proportional to the sensitivity to electrical suggestions in gas supplies.
souvenirs that some May collections of gas only create electricity that can be easily substituted from other sources. For such enterprises, which are not prepared for repair, they do not constitute a significant barrier to business in terms of gas supplies. On the other hand, in other poultry industries, administrative substitution is not appropriate due to the specificity of the technological process. A position in the bypass as a raw material in the production process (e.g. chemical industry) or a designated device industry. For the electricity supplier, the electricity supply would apply to the electricity supply.
The analyst of Credit Agricole, confirmed by industry experts, selected the categories of providing technical assistance on the subject of “gas shock”.
For the purposes of our analysis, we assume that we will observe production by 50%. in terms of “metal production”, “ironware production”, “production of chemicals and chemical products”, “production of chemicals and standards”. We assume that production will decrease by 30%. in the ‘manufacture of textiles, crown, footwear and pelt’ and ‘manufacture and processing of coke and corona refined products’.
We assume that in greenhouses, food production and production will drop by 10%. We believe that the German government’s manufacturing efforts are taking action to maintain food continuity.
We assumed that supply disruptions would not directly contribute to service performance. the same service that can benefit from consumer services due to secondary effects with a decline in fegs, for which there are also services. We believe that we intend to anticipate production in selected segments in Q4 this year. and I will take a while 2023
The scale of the shock is burdened with the company’s assessment – it is difficult to judge how quickly to be able to switch to the reserve in order to switch off the source to gas. The scale of the shock will also depend on the meteorological conditions during the action and aid activities undertaken by the German government. It should be stated that the following rules apply to the fact that in delivery and sales decline only in this regard. Disruptions in gas supplies may rise to rates also in other countries, e.g. the repair seed on the pace of economic growth in Poland would intensify.
In order to estimate the impact of the “gas shock” on the Polish analysis of the economy, we prepared the OECD’s input-output flows (ie input-output analysis) of the 2018 decoupling.
As a result, we are looking for an answer to the question related to the production in the causes will contribute to the deterioration of the quality of the production in Poland, thus.
– direct credits that are owned by production in Germany on the management of service providers and semi-finished products for the production of disposal. These effects materialize in Poland immediately after production in Germany.
– indirect effects that represent secondary effects of “gas shock”. Include one incl. Suppliers in Polish enterprises that provide intermediate goods for the needs of other Polish companies supplying services to German companies.
Indirect effects also include production in Polish enterprises that cooperate with companies providing services to German suppliers. Due to the extensive network of (often international) connections, indirect effects can complement each other in order to supplement, in relation to supplementing the delivery in the store.
The relative scale of changes and indirect changes strongly differs from, respectively. Certain chemicals may have issues that make your manufacturing feel confident that you have adequate exposure to German industries that may struggle to stay sustained in service delivery. “Crafting and preserving in the role to come, there comes gas, there is appearance, hot water.” The decline in production in the industry directly has a scrupulous impact on the activity in this industry. However, due to sales in other sales declines, this remark method will also see the noted declines due to the remark.
Our analysis that sourcing under indirect programs “Intermediary” in the collection of gas you will get a minimum period under such categories “7.9” production of non-energy raw materials “(down 5.2%),” production of chemicals and chemical products ” (4.5%), “service activities aid mining and quarrying” (3.3%) and “production of readings and crown products” (3.2%).
As a consequence, the Spanish producers, estimated by us, want to exceed 3 percent. (see diagram). According to the data provided in the assumptions, calculated by us in full production in Poland, it materialized in Poland in Q4 this year. I know. 2023 Based on our estimates, we can assure you that, within the entire economy, added in Q4 2022 – Qu. 2023 will be 1.5 percent. in the execution of the scenario without the occurrence of a “gas shock”. Due to the supply of genes dealing with and linking Poland and Germany, this shock will be dreams in industrial handicrafts. We expect that the added value in processing decreased by 3.5 percent in the period.
We estimate that the “gas shock” will lower the average annual GDP dynamics in Poland by 0.4 percentage points. percent in 2022 and 0.3 points. percent in 2023 The impact of the gas supply on the website has been limited within our revised scenario. Founded real scale of growth in Germany is currently difficult to estimate and depends on many factors, and thus the “gas shock” poses a downward risk to our forecast of economic growth for this year. (4.1% y / y) in 2023 (3.3%).
Credit Agricole Bank Polska report
Business INTERIA.PL on Twitter. Join us and read economic news