housing shortage leads to soaring property prices
You have to be richer and richer to acquire real estate in the Toulouse conurbation. According to the latest study conducted by the Adequation agency, prices are rising sharply and it has only just begun. The housing shortage is at the root of this situation.
If you want to buy a home right now in the Toulouse area, you will have to pay more. Prices are rising sharply: + 6% between 2019 and 2021.
At the national level, since the second half of 2019, the real estate development market has come to a halt with the slowdown in building permit authorizations and the development of land resources.
In 2020, this crisis intensified with confinement. The result is a 25% drop in sales and a new market that no longer meets needs.
Since 2021, the shortage has increased and prices have continued to rise.
This supply crisis has been confirmed since the beginning of 2022 with a further 10% drop in available properties and a drop in investments.
Toulouse is one of the major cities most affected by this phenomenon. The city but also the 1st and 2nd crowns, where prices are more affordable.
In 2021, the number of homes offered for sale fell by 43%, which is 30% more than at the national level. It must be said that the pink city is the one that dresses the largest number of newcomers each year.
This situation of shortage greatly favors the increase in the price per square meter. In 2021 in Toulouse, it averaged 4,350 euros, or 6% more than in 2019. Up to 4,570 euros in inner Toulouse.
And the trend is not improving. Discounts for the next few years are pessimistic.
For 2022, no improvement to be expected. The new home market remains weak because it is undersupplied.
To this must be added an unprecedented context of inflation, which will mathematically lead to a rise in prices. Under these conditions, the real estate market could halve in 4 years and increase by 15 points in terms of value.
By 2024, the average price in the Toulouse conurbation could approach 5,000 euros per square meter. This is what the Adequacy agency provides.
With less than 2000 euros in monthly income, it will now be very complicated to acquire accommodation in Toulouse. Because the shortage of goods has recently been accompanied by a tightening of the conditions for access to borrowing and a rise in interest rates.
Where it took a net income of 2160 euros per month to acquire a T2 in the new in 2020, it would take more than 2700 in 2024. a loss of 10% of eligible households.
Only the supply of new housing at affordable prices will be able to continue to serve a significant proportion of households, in particular first-time buyers.
But it will be necessary to borrow over long periods of more than 20 years and to have a contribution of 10% so as not to exceed the fateful threshold of 33% of indebtedness.