What the Kremlin can do against Lithuania: it suggests not even speaking out loud about Russia’s response regarding Kaliningrad
The Kremlin said on Monday that the presidents of Russia and Belarus discussed “some possible actions” the countries would take in response to violations related to restrictions imposed by Lithuania on the illegal transit of goods to the Kaliningrad region.
The Kremlin, reacting to the fact that Lithuania transits European Union (EU) sanctions to Kaliningrad, has threatened several times, but so far the hostile neighbor’s actions have been limited to cyber attacks.
Kasčiūnas: the threat of a military response is minimal
Audronius Ažubalis, member of the Foreign Affairs and European Affairs Committees of the Seimas Delphi said that Lithuania is ready for any retaliatory measures, whatever they may be.
“With Russia, you have to be ready. When the head of state sits and thinks about how harming the neighbors is, sooner or later he will come up with something and he cannot predict everything. It is necessary to prepare for everything, but, in my opinion, Lithuania is ready for Russia’s sanctions as far as possible,” he said.
Speaking about Russia’s possible retaliatory military measures, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, the chairman of the Seimas National Security and Defense Committee, said that Russia is not capable of taking such measures.
“There are absolutely no serious military provocations, Russia has, as we know very well, minimal challenges and troubles in Ukraine. I think that their military power has been pushed back five years, and just looking at the indicators of the Kaliningrad region in the military field, there is also an obvious, clear decrease.
I have repeatedly thanked the Ukrainians for helping us to demilitarize the Kaliningrad region – some may be ironic, but the facts are that they are helping us to do it,” – Delphi commented the MP.
Matijošaitis: it is difficult to predict the response
True, according to him, Russia can certainly take economic countermeasures, for example in the field of transport.
And in the field of energy, Russia has no leverage against Lithuania, noted L. Kasčiūnas.
“I really want to be happy that where Europe has serious problems with energy and challenges as the heating season approaches, we basically don’t have such challenges. This is a clear proof of our homework that we have freed ourselves from energy dependence on Russia and become resilient in this area. A good decade ago, this would have been a huge trump card in the hands of Russia,” commented the head of the committee.
Marius Matijošaitis, a member of the Foreign Affairs and European Affairs Committees of the Seimas, also said that he was convinced that Lithuania would “perfectly withstand disturbances in the energy sector” if there were any.
Other sensitive areas named by him are cyber security, economy.
“What can Russia do? It has engaged in cyber-attacks before, but is engaging even more intensively. There are considerations that there could be actions that would disrupt the economy, imports in the Baltic Sea, and all kinds of other provocations that would not touch a physical conflict”, commented the parliamentarian in Delfi and noted that at least Lithuania is dealing with cyber attacks.
In general, according to M. Matijošaitis, “it is very difficult to model what is in the minds of the bloody, genocidal regime, in the minds of the decision-makers”.
“Tell me what shares [rusai] will take action against Lithuania, their desperation should be measured,” said the member of the Seimas.
Pavilion: Let’s focus on the implementation of sanctions
According to Žygimantas Pavilionis, a member of the Foreign Affairs and European Affairs Committees of the Seimas, Lithuania should not publicly discuss the Kremlin’s possible response and instead, according to him, should focus on the implementation of EU sanctions.
“By raising the question of a response, you are actually spreading Russian intimidation, which it uses in all the countries of the European Union. I would suggest not to spread them and calmly focus on ensuring that the sanctions are implemented, and not on what Russia’s response would be.
We see Russia’s response every day in the killing of people, the destruction of cities and villages on the territory of Ukraine”, – Delphi commented Ž. Pavilion.
Russia is trying to divert attention from its aggression in Ukraine by threats and intimidation, according to the representative of the nation. According to him, react very calmly to the Kremlin’s rhetoric, do your work and get stronger.
“I suggest not to scare the Lithuanian people with the Kremlin’s arguments, but to focus on the response of all the West to the Russian aggression, which, of course, we are already preparing.
Madrid’s decisions, the strengthening of our security and defense, our energy security issues, which, frankly, we are dealing with much more than many other EU countries, so we are not as unprepared as other countries that are only now taking those Lithuanian decisions in their energy sector,” he said. Ž. Pavilion.
Ajubalis: nothing to worry about
On Monday, the Kaliningrad authorities announced that they are considering a complete ban on the movement of goods between the Baltic countries and Russia.
A. Ažubalis said that the movement of goods between Lithuania and Russia is very small, and the losses would not be a high price compared to the bloody war that Russia is waging in Ukraine.
“Of course, every job, every business is very important, but you can’t always sit on two chairs. If there is already a right side and if you campaign for sanctions yourself, countermeasures from the other side must be accepted. And comparing what they can give, with what these guys are doing in Ukraine, it’s those distances, it’s space. Therefore, I think, in this case, nobody in Lithuania should have much trouble”, commented the member of the Seimas.
According to L. Kasčiūnas, Lithuania is learning to live without Russia and would withstand the aforementioned sanctions.
“It seems to me that we are learning little by little without Russia, many of our sectors have realized that. It would be good if some politicians who have businesses on average also understand,” he said.
According to the politician, the business relations between Lithuania and Russia are not such that “we would be brought to our knees if one or the other blood vessel in the economy was pinched”.
“It certainly isn’t,” he said.
New sanctions will come into effect
The Minister of Economy and Innovation Aušrinė Armonaitė emphasized to BNS on Monday that Lithuania is independent from Russia because it “does not buy electricity or gas from it” and has no significant economic relations with this country.
She said she does not take seriously Russia’s threats to stop the transit of some of its goods through Lithuania to Kaliningrad. Because of this, according to the minister, Russia can put pressure not on Lithuania, but on other EU countries, such as Germany.
From Sunday, after the end of the transition period of the fifth package of EU sanctions against Russia, it is prohibited to transport cement and other products of Russian origin via Lithuania to Kaliningrad alcohol, writes BNS.
On June 17th, the ban on transporting Russian steel and ferrous metals through the EU territory came into effect, from August 10th it will no longer be possible to transport coal and other solid fuels, and from December 5th – Russian oil and its products.
Russia announced that these are hostile and unilateral actions of Lithuania and the blockade of Kaliningrad. Lithuania denies this, calls Russian information propaganda and reminds that EU sanctions apply to transit.
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