Weather report. Heat wave. The Toulouse region among the most supported, towards a new red alert?
By Maxence Dourlen
Published on
Are we going to attend a unprecedented heat wave a Toulouse and in Occitania ? Like last June, a new episode of heat wave will hit the area in a few days. “This heat episode started this Monday, July 11, 2022 »Explain Meteo France. “It’s difficult at the moment to be definitive on many points, but we can go ahead and say that this trend will continue for quite a long time…”
Towards a new red alert?
At 1623 departments, including Haute-Garonne, had already been placed in yellow vigilance heat wave. Vigilance that could quickly tend towards orange mid-week and the Red a few days later.
Between 8 and 10 days of high heat?
Several scenarios are currently being examined by specialists who agree that “even in the best case, temperatures will be well above the average for the season”. “There are a lot of uncertainties about duration and end of this heat wave”, continued Meteo France.
In all likelihood, this heat wave should last at least between 8 and 10 days. “The peak should occur between Saturday and Tuesday”, specify the meteorologists who say they are “worried” about the repetition of these phenomena.
“These phenomena will tend to generalize with longer and longer summer periods, earlier and later heat waves… We can imagine heat waves in September even if this has never happened yet. There is a tendency towards a certain recurrence of these phenomena. 35°C is becoming the norm in summer, it will soon be 40°C… So yes, of course you have to be worried. »
As during the last heat episode, “the Garonne Valley will be subject, along with the Rhône Valley, to higher heat from the country “.
Significant heat peaks from Saturday
While many uncertainties still surround this episode of heat wave, forecasters agree that the heat peak should occur next weekend. In Occitania, the thermometer could exceeding 40°C several times.
“The intensity of this heat wave will depend on the position that the altitude cold drop will take (isolation of the cold air at 5000 meters altitude). This phenomenon will cause more or less hot air to rise in the region. “No stormy deterioration is currently expected. Even if they are still isolated, extreme scenarios can also be imagined…”
What do the seasonal normals say?
At this time of year, the seasonal maximum temperature is, according to normal, 29°C in Toulouse.
This week, it should be 37°C on Monday, 38°C on Tuesday, 38°C on Wednesday, 40°C on Thursday, 41°C on Friday, 40°C on Saturday and 39°C on Sunday.
Since 2003 ?
Can we therefore imagine a heat wave greater than that ofAugust 2003 (high temperature intensity for two weeks)? Although it is still too early to put forward this hypothesis, the specialists do not rule out the idea of a long and significant heat wave, “with the difference that there was not this cold drop phenomenon of altitude in 2003”.
“The heat wave is associated with a heat dome. A cover in which the heat will accumulate. This dome will capture hot air day after day to gain power and intensity. »
Concerning the most pessimistic worried, Météo France nevertheless encountered a warning: “What we can see on social networks are extremely isolated scenarios. Beware of these crude models. Worn classics are alarming enough to add a layer! A new point will be made on Wednesday to determine the future impact of this heat wave.
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