in Toulouse, a study projects a price per m2 of 4800 euros
Will the prices of new housing in Toulouse soar over the next three years? This is what the Observer of Toulouse real estate fears. This organization, which brings together property developers in the Toulouse urban area and other housing stakeholders, wants to once again sound the alarm and alert the new government to this problem.
If the average price per square meter in the metropolis of Toulouse reaches 4,350 euros in 2021 according to him, a study commissioned by the structure from the firm Adequation draws up a scenario that is worrying to say the least. According to their joint projections, the price could rise to 4,800 euros as early as 2023 or at the latest in 2024.
Consequently, and if this scenario is confirmed, the budgets for becoming an owner would no longer have anything to do with those of the rather recent past. According to the study, acquiring a T3 at free price required an average acquisition budget of 250,000 euros in the Toulouse metropolis in 2019/2020. This amounted to a monthly net income per household of 2,810 euros, which made eligible 45% of target households according to Adequacy, which are young workers and young families. But their projections for 2023/2024 are quite different. The same T3 would cost 288,000 euros, which would then require monthly income of 3,470 euros, would then require the share of eligible households at 35%. This phenomenon is also observed for new properties of type T2 and T4.
Market launches in constant decline
Several points explain this potential price surge, knowing already that it has been +6% per m2 in the Toulouse metropolis since 2019. First of all, the puts on the market are drastically decreasing. Only the Bordeaux metropolis, in France, does worse.
Over the whole of 2021, new housing listings on the Toulouse real estate market fell by -42% compared to 2019, the last reference year for the sector, while Bordeaux is at – 46%. Nantes completes the podium with -40%. In any case, this is one of the main lessons to be learned from a study by the firm Adequacy, commissioned by L’Observer de l’Immobilier toulousain.
According to their study, only 2,218 homes were put up for sale last year in the city of Toulouse alone and 2,200 in the first and second crowns. Which seems too little for a territory that welcomes around 15,000 new inhabitants each year.
And the first trends of the Observer for the year 2022 may not seem more reassuring, despite the initiatives of Toulouse Métropole to try to relaunch housing construction in the face of the cancellation by the courts of the PLUi-H. According to the study by the firm Adequation for L’Observer, offers for sale in Toulouse Métropole could drop to 2,800 new homes in 2023, against nearly 6,200 in 2019, with stocks also at their lowest.
“Prices will increase in new housing over the years to come, taking into account various aspects such as the Zero Net Artificialisation (ZAN), the RE2020 (which imposes the use of biosourced materials and which better insulate housing, editor’s note), the increase in the cost of materials, the shortage of land and the inertia of reconstitution of the offer. Under these conditions, the market, in volumes, could decrease by more than half in four years and increase by 15 points in value”, fears L’ Observer reimbursed by Laetitia Vidal recently.
The mayor of Toulouse calls for legislative changes
According to the Mayor of Toulouse and President of the Metropolis, Jean-Luc Moudenc, “the situation has worsened“A few months ago,” he says. »We have an accumulation of worrying problems. The RE2020 increases production costs, the rise in rates reduces candidates for purchase and developers even prefer to postpone their projects in the face of soaring material costs.“, testifies the aedile.
For the record, Jean-Luc Moudenc joined the Rebsamen commission at the dawn of summer 2021, named after the mayor of Dijon and chairman of this commission responsible for providing the Castex government with a list of proposals to relaunch the construction of new housing. in the country. “The government has taken up only part of our proposals“, regrets the elected official, who also sits on the France Urbaine association, which brings together the major cities of France.
Above all, Jean-Luc Moudenc is calling for a new version of the Climate and Resilience Law. This is implementing ZAN now with a 50% reduction in land consumed by 2030 compared to consumption measured between 2011 and 2020 and zero net artificialisation is set at 2050.
“Local elected officials are brutally discovering the consequences of this law, which drastically reduce the buildable areas. We should keep this same objective for 2050 but smooth it out more by this deadline. an enlargement of Airbus for new activities. We are asking for an exception for these major industrial projects”, explains the mayor of Toulouse, in charge of the ecological transition at France Urbaine.
A measure that could make sense with the government’s desire to reindustrialize the territories.