How NATO will change if Finland and Sweden become members
Russia’s attacks on Ukraine have forced Finland and Sweden to apply for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which has led them to join the transatlantic alliance if political obstacles can be overcome. Their accession would dramatically expand NATO’s border with Russia and further anchor geopolitical rivalry.
What happens?
More from our experts
The Finnish and Swedish governments formally applied for membership on 18 May, which launched an intensive diplomatic process that could see the two countries join NATO within a few months. The supporters hope to be able to build up the speed NATO Annual Summit, this year on June 28-30 in Madrid, where alliance leaders will meet to discuss the war in Ukraine, China’s growing influence and a new strategic concept. – A Finnish and Swedish NATO membership is a no-brainer in all respects. It is a win-win proposal for the Baltic Sea Region, the Alliance and European Security, ”writes Alexander Stubb, former Prime Minister of Finland. “Applicants will not be more NATO-compatible than this.”
More about:
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)
Finland
Sweden
Defense and security
Russia
The two Nordic states, like all applicants, must meet political, economic and military requirements and show that they will uphold all the policies and principles established in 1949. Washington Treatyalliance charter.
To grant membership, the governments of all thirty current NATO members must sign and ratify the so-called Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden. In the United States, this requires the president’s signature and approval of two-thirds of the US Senate. Both President Joe Biden and Congress are expected to move rapidly in support of the process.
What are the obstacles?
The most significant obstacle has been objections from Turkey. Ankara demands that Helsinki and Stockholm renounce their support for a Kurdish militant group in Syria, the People’s Protection Units (YPG). The YPG, which was also supported by the United States and other NATO members, helped defeat the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Syria, but Turkey sees the group and its alleged ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as a terrorist threat. Diplomacy to mediate a solution on the dead end is ongoing.
More from our experts
Are they ready to join?
Finland and Sweden have been working with the alliance for almost thirty years, and they are generally considered to be good security partners. They joined the NATO Partnership for Peace in 1994 and both contributed personnel to NATO-led operations in Afghanistan, the Balkans and Iraq. In 2014, they became two of only six Enhanced Opportunity Partners and have since worked to increase their military’s ability to operate with NATO forces. Sweden recently hosted more than a dozen NATO allies and Finland in BALTOPS 22a large naval exercise in the Baltic Sea.
What would be the security implications of membership?
Finnish and Swedish membership is expected to strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank and its collective defense in northern Europe. Perhaps the most significant effect would be the stretching of the NATO border with Russia. Taking in Finland would more than double the length and add about 800 miles of border. And Finland and Sweden together would significantly increase the alliance’s presence in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Circle.
More about:
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)
Finland
Sweden
Defense and security
Russia
Prior to its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Russia strongly criticized the United States and allied leaders for NATO’s expansion after the Cold War into the former Soviet bloc and sought binding security guarantees from them, including a permanent ban on new members. In recent weeks, President Vladimir Putin has said that Finland’s and Sweden’s membership offer constitutes “no direct threat to Russia“, But he has warned the two countries to become bases for NATO forces or equipment. Swedish leaders have stated that they do not want to host NATO assets; Finland has not yet indicated its preferences. Neighboring country Norway, a NATO member, gives allies access for exercises but does not allow permanent installations or nuclear weapons.
The proposed enlargement is expected to increase security for the Baltic states, which have been members of NATO since 2004 and whose defense planners have long worried that Russia could seize Finnish and Swedish islands in the Baltic Sea. especially Gotland, and use them as bases to launch attacks on their territories. A few Western military analysts has said that NATO would almost certainly need basic rights in Finland and Sweden to defend the Baltic states. Baltic leaders strongly support the accession of the Nordic states and continue to pressure other alliance members to strengthen NATO’s military deployments in their countries.
Taking Finland and Sweden into the fold is also expected to strengthen NATO deterrence in the Arctic, a region where Russia has invested heavily in commercial and military infrastructure. Finnish and Swedish accession would bring all Arctic states, except Russia, into NATO, enabling the Alliance to pursue a more cohesive strategy in the region.