What kind of wheat harvest to expect in Bulgaria: Three scenarios
Three possible scenarios for the new grain harvest in the country have been developed by economists from the Center for Agricultural Economic Research (CAPA), who present in their month a report on the agricultural market in the country.
Experts inform sinor.bg that compared to the current state of crops, it is most likely that wheat harvested from a new crop will be between 5.9 – 6.2 million tons.
Two other options are too optimistic – for a harvest of 6.2m to 6.5m euros. tons of wheat, and the pessimistic – for 5.6 – 5.9 million tons of harvested bread grain.
CAPA expects the average yields to be slightly higher than in the last 5 years – about 5.30 t / ha, or 530 kg per decare.
In Northeastern and North-Central Bulgaria relies on higher yields based on precipitation in April. However, this does not apply to South-Eastern and South-Central Bulgaria, which remained anhydrous, and this implies a greater risk of reduced yields than usual. JRC Mars’s current forecast for these areas is expected to be 5.2 t / ha, which is 13% below last year.
Regarding the average purchase prices for the market year 2022/23 is expected to be significantly higher. The average purchase prices for the whole market 2022/23 years for wheat are estimated at BGN 710 / t and about BGN 620 / t for barley. The market year will largely be determined by this global inflationary pressure and attitudes towards increased demand against rising prices.
Due to the blocking of the amount of cereals and oilseeds from Ukraine, prices continue to rise. FOB prices from Russia at the end of May for bread wheat with 410 dollars per ton, for barley – 365 USD / t and for feed wheat – 370 USD / ton. For FOB corn, the price is $ 355 per ton.
According to the US USDA, the new global harvest is expected to be good for wheat, amounting to 775 million tons, 0.6% below the record of 2021. Among the major exporters, Ukraine will be most affected, as production could fall to 21.5 million tons. and hence the amount to be 10 million tons in the quantities for 2021/22 reaching 19 million tons.