Russia and Belarus adapt to new reality in 2024
Photo: moneyman.ru
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) offers a macroeconomic forecast for the next two years for a bank of member countries. The economies of Russia and Belarus are expected to decline until 2024. In other republics of the EAEU, as well as in Tajikistan, while maintaining independence, but growing economies.
The EDB notes that at present the world economy is in a turbulent state, shaken and practically unprepared for control. The largest countries are highly likely to go into recession in 2022–2023, including due to high demand (above 10%), increased consumption of energy, food and consumption, logistical gaps, reduced food consumption and a decline in investment activity. At the end of 2022, the global economy will slow down to 2.7% (in 2021, the global economy will grow by 5.8%). Negative energy and food scenarios could push the world into a deep recession in early 2023.
Russia and Belarus The identification of the EDB predicts a significant economic downturn in 2022-2023. According to the bank’s forecasts, the GDP of the countries’ economies will decrease by 7% and 6.5%, respectively. Inflation will accelerate strongly and by the end of 2022. The indicator is 16% infected in Russia, 18% in Belarus. EDB notes that “the process of adaptation to the new reality” lasts about 1.5-2 years. In 2023, GDP in Belarus is 3%, retention slows down to 8%. After that, in 2024, both in Belarus and in Russia, a process of recovery and growth is predicted (for Belarus – by 1.5%).
Belarus, according to bank experts, a collision with maximum negative consequences The EDB report says that at the beginning of 2022 the country was in recession, GDP In the first quarter of 2022, Belarusian exports fell by 19.1%, in March – by 36.3% (due to receipt of potash fertilizers). Sanctions naturally affected the vital sectors of the country, which accounted for the main exports. At the end of 2022, due to a reduction and a production gap, a reduction in production, as well as a recession in the Russian economy, Belarus lost about 10 billion US dollars of exports. The economy will experience additional income from income and population growth, calculate the reduction in overweight consumption. Belarus is a country whose economy is difficult to predict in terms of the degree of recovery from the crisis. A 10% reduction in GDP can be obtained in 2022 under negative scenarios. Unleashing significant entrepreneurship could free up the economy’s reserves for recovery and reduce the fall in GDP.
The challenges faced by the world during the pandemic hit hard on the economy of the EDB region, according to experts, predicted their long recovery. However, in the baseline scenario of his report, it is noted that in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the next two years there is little interest, but economic growth. At the same time, Kazakhstan called a strange situation with a high stability of the economy.
Thus, in 2022-2023, GDP growth is expected in Armenia – 1%, in Kazakhstan – 2.5%, Kyrgyzstan – 1.1%, in Tajikistan – 4.2%. The EDB notes that the growth of the economies of the countries will accelerate already in 2023. In Kazakhstan, the economy is expected to grow by 4.8%, in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia – by 1.6% and 3.5%, respectively – due to the growth of consumer and business activity, as well as the reorientation of exports and labor activity. As for the supply, by the end of 2022 in Armenia it is forecasted at the level of 8.6%, in Kazakhstan – 13.2%, in Kyrgyzstan – 15.3%, in Tajikistan – 11.6%.