Putin’s NATO nightmare: Sweden and Finland joining the alliance is a problem
Cavoli, who spoke at a hearing about his nomination to lead the US European command and be the Allies’ highest commander in Europe, said Sweden and Finland military capabilities and resources would facilitate their integration into the alliance.
Finland has “a large army” that is well-equipped, “very well-trained” and can “very quickly” expand because most Finns have military training, Cavoli said.
“Sweden is the same thing – a smaller army but a very capable army and a growing army,” Cavoli said.
Since Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014, Sweden has approved significant expenditure increases to add troops and procure hardware. That growth and Sweden’s reputation for produces high quality weapons – inclusive advanced non-stealth jets and conventionally powered submarines – would benefit NATO, said Cavoli.
“I think it will be quite easy for us to integrate them quickly. We have integrated them in our large-scale exercises as well as in our operations abroad for a few years now, says Cavoli.
Cavoli emphasized that the geography of Sweden and Finland would benefit NATO. Finland would more than double NATO’s border with Russia, but Finland has been “absolutely expert” in defending its border, Cavoli said, pointing to winter war 1939-1940.
“Russia has historically not placed too many ground forces on that border,” concentrated them elsewhere “because they thought they had a relationship with Finland that enabled them to do so,” Cavoli said. “That possibility disappears now.”
The adoption of Sweden and Finland would also almost completely surround the Baltic Sea with alliance territory, which would create what has been called “a NATO lake”.
That fence would present “a bunch of different dilemmas, almost geometric dilemmas, that Russia does not have right now when they sail out of St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, so it will be beneficial” for NATO, Cavoli said.
Both countries also have islands in strategically valuable places in the Baltic Sea. Sweden’s Gotland – to which it has relocated military forces – “is sometimes referred to as the” unsinkable aircraft carrier “, Cavoli added.
Sweden’s fleet ”will add an enormous amount of surface capacity to us in the Baltic Sea. They also have underwater capacity that will help us as well, Cavoli said.
US Navy trains regularly with NATO fleets in the Baltic Seaand that presence would increase if Sweden and Finland joined the alliance, said Marine Secretary Carlos Del Toro at a hearing in the House Appropriations subcommittee on 18 May.
“I look forward to the possibility of Sweden and Finland joining NATO,” said del Toro. “I foresee a day when we will actually increase our maritime operations in the Baltic Sea.”
“A new kind of challenge”
Sweden and Finland stood outside NATO for decades, despite both working closely with the alliance.
Russia’s renewed attack on Ukraine at the end of February, however, aroused public support for membership in both countries, and Finnish and Swedish officials submitted their applications at the same time on 18 May.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said their message was “warm welcome“and more than 80 US senators have expressed support for speeding up their approval, but the support has not been uniform.
In his interrogation with Cavoli, Republican Senator Josh Hawley expressed concern about whether their recognition could eventually lead to the United States stationing more forces in Europe, such as the Biden administration. signals it can maintain a larger force of 100,000 US troops in Europe as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues. Others have argued that their inclusion would entail more risks than benefits for the United States. Turkey has also protested against their membership over what it says is security issues.
Officials from Sweden and Finland have both emphasized that they would expand the alliance as it faces new and emerging threats.
IN an interview in early May, the Swedish ambassador to the United States, Karin Olofsdotter, pointed to Sweden’s long-term participation in NATO operations and intensified military investments. “We put really tough nuclear safety on the table,” said Olofsdotter.
Finland has “a long border but a peaceful border” with Russia and has always tried to keep it as such, said Pekka Haavisto, Finland’s Foreign Minister. at an event Friday.
At the same time, of course, we see that it is not just about Finland but the whole of NATO is facing a new type of challenge from Russia. These are not just traditional military challenges. It can be hybrid influences. It can be cyber-influenced, “said Haavisto. “We think we have a lot of opportunities to deal with that kind of risk, so it will hopefully contribute to the security of the whole alliance.”
Christopher Woody edits and reports on defense and security issues for Insider. He is based in Washington, DC.