How Finland and Sweden would change NATO’s strategic map
This week, Finland and Sweden, traditionally neutral nations, announced their tenders to join NATO, a move that analysts say will change Europe’s security landscape for many years to come – and further strain relations with Russia, which opposes the alliance’s eastern expansion.
The addition of the countries could offer the alliance increased land, sea and air capabilities. Sweden has a strong navy, which would strengthen NATO’s defense in the Baltic Sea, and builds its own fighter jets, which it exports to countries around the world. Finland’s well-funded military maintains compulsory military service for men. It is a “whole society view on defense,” said Christopher Skaluba, head of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative. “They can mobilize hundreds and thousands of their citizens.”
The countries also offer important geographical advantages, which would improve NATO’s defense.
Finland’s NATO membership would add 800 km to the alliance’s border with Russia.
That limit is close Coal Peninsulawhere Russia’s nuclear submarines and Arctic fleet are based.
Finland’s NATO membership would add 800 km to the alliance’s border with Russia.
That limit is close Coal Peninsulawhere Russia’s nuclear submarines and Arctic fleet are based.
Finland’s NATO membership would add 800 km to the alliance’s border with Russia.
That limit is close Coal Peninsulawhere Russia’s nuclear submarines and Arctic fleet are based.
Finland’s NATO membership would add 800 km to the alliance’s border with Russia.
That limit is close Coal Peninsulawhere Russia’s nuclear submarines and Arctic fleet are based.
Finland’s border with Russia stretches more than 800 km and is already closely patrolled. The nation’s membership would double the alliance’s land border. “On the one hand, this gives NATO an increased deterrent because Moscow would need to defend this border,” said Carisa Nietsche, an associate fellow for the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. “On the other hand, NATO must also protect this border from a Russian attack.”
The Finns remember the winter war of 1939-1940, when the country suffered heavy losses when they repulsed Soviet forces.
“Their relationship with Russia is defined by mistrust,” said Cristina Florea, a historian in Central and Eastern Europe at Cornell University.
Finland’s membership would bring the alliance closer to Russia’s Kola Peninsula, a strategic landmass about 110 km east of the border where Russia stores ballistic missile boats and stores nuclear warheads. The Northern Fleet, which has the task of patrolling the Arctic, is also based on the peninsula.
Increased Baltic presence
In the south, the membership of Finland and Sweden would give the alliance an advantage in the Baltic Sea, a strategic waterway bordering Russia’s St. Petersburg. Petersburg, as well as some of NATO’s most vulnerable members.
Sweden’s and Finland’s membership would increase NATO’s access to the Baltic Sea.
At present, in order to strengthen the Baltic states, NATO must pass through Suwalki Gapa narrow country corridor near Russian territory.
Sweden’s and Finland’s membership would increase NATO’s access to the Baltic Sea.
At present, in order to strengthen the Baltic states, NATO must pass through Suwalki Gapa narrow country corridor near Russian territory.
Sweden’s and Finland’s membership would increase NATO’s access to the Baltic Sea.
At present, in order to strengthen the Baltic states, NATO must pass through Suwalki Gapa narrow country corridor near Russian territory.
Sweden’s and Finland’s membership would increase NATO’s access to the Baltic Sea.
At present, in order to strengthen the Baltic states, NATO must pass through Suwalki Gapa narrow country corridor near Russian territory.
“NATO’s main mission is to keep Russia away from the Baltic states,” Skaluba said, referring to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. A growing presence on the shores of the Baltic Sea would strengthen the security of these countries.
“Swedish and Finnish NATO membership would give NATO another path of reinforcement through the Baltic Sea,” Nietsche said. “Currently, NATO’s reinforcement is due to the Suwalki Gap, the narrow corridor that separates Kaliningrad and Belarus that Russia could try to close in a conflict.”
In the middle of the sea is Gotland, a 169 km long Swedish island with medieval ruins and military fortifications. In April, Sweden announced it would spend $ 163 million to increase its strengths on the island, including the expansion of barracks to house more troops.
Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to NATO would mean an increased presence in the Arctic.
More than 50 percent of the Arctic Ocean coast is Russian territory
As members of the Arctic Council, Sweden and Finland’s membership would increase NATO’s footprint in a region that Russia sees as crucial to its security.
More than 50 percent of the Arctic Ocean coast is Russian territory
As members of the Arctic Council, Sweden and Finland’s membership would increase NATO’s footprint in a region that Russia sees as crucial to its security.
More than 50 percent of the Arctic Ocean coast is Russian territory
As members of the Arctic Council, Sweden and Finland’s membership would increase NATO’s footprint in a region that Russia sees as crucial to its security.
Historically, GIUK Gap has been strategically crucial as a way to navigate the otherwise difficult Arctic Ocean.
More than 50 percent of the Arctic Ocean coast is Russian territory
Historically, GIUK Gap has been strategically crucial as a way to navigate the otherwise difficult Arctic Ocean.
As members of the Arctic Council, Sweden and Finland’s membership would increase NATO’s footprint in a region that Russia sees as crucial to its security.
The two countries are members of the Arctic Council, an organization that monitors the northernmost parts of the world whose members include Russia, Canada and the United States. With their membership, “Arctic security would continue to climb on NATO’s agenda,” Nietsche said.
Since more than 50 percent of the Arctic coast is Russian territory, it could also climb Moscow’s agenda. “They see security in the area as a matter of defense of the homeland,” Skaluba said.
Military missions from the Kola Peninsula are deployed throughout the Arctic. Sweden and Finland could help monitor that activity, but could also increase the risk of escalation.
“The Arctic is generally considered a success story of cooperation between NATO’s Arctic nations and Russia, but there are fears that it will increasingly become a disputed area in the security field, something that is probably more likely when Sweden and Finland become NATO nations. “, Skaluba added.
Sources: NATO, The Geography of the International System: The CShapes Dataset (Old Country Borders)
Emily Rauhala contributed to this report.