Finland and Sweden apply for NATO membership
“I warmly welcome the wishes of Finland and Sweden to join NATO,” said Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a press conference in Brussels with ambassadors from each country. “You are our closest partners and your membership of NATO would increase our shared security.”
Stoltenberg called the applications a “historic step” and said the Allies will now consider the next step.
Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finnish President Sauli Niinistö in Finland are scheduled to perform at the White House on Thursday, where President Biden is expected to show his support.
NATO officials and several allies have signaled that Finland and Sweden can expect protection during the period before their membership is fully ratified and they are part of NATO’s collective defense pact, known as “Article 5”.
A big question is whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will take revenge. European officials and diplomats said that Finland and Sweden were prepared for hybrid or covert attacks.
Putin had mentioned the threat of NATO expansion among the justifications for his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Kyiv itself is not considered on the verge of joining NATO. But Putin’s war has resulted in a revived alliance that is now ready to double its land border with Russia.
The two new members would bring NATO’s full force to the far north and strengthen its presence in the Baltic Sea region. The alliance would have two sophisticated military personnel with deep experience operating near Russia’s border. Sweden also has the strategically important island of Gotland, only 200 km from the Russian military in Kaliningrad.
Finland and Sweden did not consider themselves neutral before. Militarily, they have been close NATO partners. Politically, they are members of the European Union.
But thinking of themselves as non-aligned militarily has been an important part of their self-perception. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a majority of people in both countries said it was safer to stay out of NATO. But in recent months, public opinion has fluctuated dramatically.
“We are leaving one era and starting another,” Sveriges Andersson said on Monday and announced the decision.
“This is an extraordinary development given where we were in February,” said Anna Wieslander, Head of Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council.
“Russia wanted to turn back time, return to the Cold War, divide and weaken the West,” she continued. “Now, in May, we’re here.”
After receiving the applications, NATO will convene its decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council, to decide whether to proceed with the request. From there, there will be accession talks, according to a NATO official who spoke on condition of anonymity according to the alliance’s rules of the game.
This first phase of the accession process is expected to proceed quickly, largely as both countries are already close NATO partners. From there, it could take “months” for each Member State to ratify the decision, the official said.
Last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed skepticism about Sweden and Finland’s accession, but NATO officials and analysts believe that Turkey will fall in line. “We are determined to work through all issues and reach quick conclusions,” Stoltenberg said on Wednesday.
Russian officials have warned of “consequences” at every step, but have in recent days offered more subdued rhetoric.
Putin said on Monday that Finland’s and Sweden’s entry into NATO did not pose an imminent danger to Russia, but warned that a military build-up in both countries could change that assessment.
“Russia has no problems with Finland and Sweden, and in this sense, expansion at the expense of these countries does not pose an immediate threat to us,” he said in televised comments on Monday. “But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory will certainly provoke our response.”
“What it will be, we will look at based on the threats that will be created for us,” he continued. “We will respond accordingly.”
In a telephone conversation over the weekend, Putin told Finnish President Sauli Niinisto that the decision to join NATO was “wrong” and could have a “negative effect” on Russian-Finnish ties, but he did not make any specific threats, according to reports.
NATO and European officials have largely downplayed the risk of significant Russian aggression.
The country’s military is still embroiled in heavy fighting in Ukraine and has lost both soldiers and equipment. Russia also withdrew troops from the border with Finland to fight in Ukraine, leaving Moscow with a reduced capacity to focus on the border militarily.
Given the widespread support for NATO accession in Finland and Sweden, it will be difficult for Russia to try to influence these publics.
“There is no place to intervene, there is no reason to get people to change their minds,” said Henri Vanhanen, a foreign policy expert and adviser to the center-right National Coalition Party. “This is the democratic resistance we have against Russia.”
“It is out of reach for Russia right now to try to stop Finland and Sweden from joining NATO,” he continued. “It has to be fixed.”
If Putin tries, allies have promised support. Britain, Denmark, France, Iceland and Norway are among those who have promised military support if either Finland or Sweden were to be attacked. Anyone who wants to test European solidarity by threatening or attacking their sovereignty, in any way, must be sure that France will stand shoulder to shoulder with Finland and Sweden “, reads the French. statement.