Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO accession is not a threat to Russia, but military expansion will cause a response
Finland and Sweden are ready to end decades of neutrality by joining NATO, a dramatic development of European security and geopolitics triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The two Nordic nations had long kept the military alliance at arm’s length, even when they looked east to Russia with caution.
But Moscow’s attack on Ukraine has raised renewed security concerns across the region, and the leaders of each country have signaled their desire to join the bloc after more than 75 years of military alliance.
What has happened so far? Finnish leaders announced their intentions to join NATO on Thursday and formally presented that wish at a press conference on Sunday.
In Sweden, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson announced during a press conference her party’s support for the country applying to join NATO.
The move must be approved by a vote in parliament in each country, but with the support of the governing governments, that obstacle is expected to be passed comfortably.
What comes next? NATO has what it calls an “open door policy” for new members – any European country can apply to join, as long as they meet certain criteria and all existing members agree.
A country does not technically “apply” to join; Article 10 of its founding treaty states that, once a nation has expressed an interest, the existing Member States may “by unanimous invitation invite any other European State which is able to promote the principles of this treaty … to accede.”
NATO diplomats told Reuters that ratification of new members could take a year, as all 30 current members’ legislatures must approve new applicants.
Both Finland and Sweden already meet many of the requirements for membership, which includes have a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy; treat minority populations fairly; undertake to resolve conflicts peacefully; the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and to engage in democratic civil-military relations and institutions.
The process may not be without obstacles; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that he did not view both countries’ accession to NATO “positively”, accusing them of harboring Kurdish “terrorist organizations”.
In the meantime, both countries will have to rely on their current allies and partners for security guarantees, rather than Article 5 – the clause that states that an attack on a NATO nation is an attack on everyone and that triggers a collective response in that event.
Sweden and Finland have received assurances of support from the United States and Germany should they be attacked, while the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed mutual security agreements with his Finnish and Swedish counterparts last week.
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