“Realizes that in an emergency, Russia’s war in Ukraine plunges Belarus.” Experts about who and what Lukashenka is afraid of
During a meeting with the military on May 10, Alexander Lukashenko was concerned about the readiness of the Belarusian army to be infected by external aggression, emphasizingthat the war in Ukraine “taught us a lot.” In addition to the fact that Minsk voluntarily became an accomplice of Moscow in military aggression against Kyiv, Belarus does not affect any conflicts of conflicts, and no one is in danger in the country. So who is Alyaksandr Lukashenka afraid of – all the same West and attacks, the seizure has been scaring Belarusians since 2020, or also Russia, ready in the midst of military aggression declarethat she did not attack Ukraine? Here’s what they think about it.
“Lukashenko realizes that Russia is putting him in an extremely dangerous position”
Former diplomat and analyst at the European Council on Relations Pavel Slyunkin believes that the main concerns of Alexander Lukashenko concern Western countries and NATO.
– He happens to remember the unfortunate Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein, Slobodan Milosevic: the first was killed, the second was executed, and turned out to be the third in the dock. It seems to me that he is aware that in some kind of emergency, Russia’s war in Ukraine plunges Belarus and his regime in particular. because of this, he follows the conference with the military. But first of all, he cares about the future, asking questions: “What will happen if Russia suddenly stops fighting with NATO countries?” “What if the Western countries decide to go for Belarus?” the analyst comments.
At the same time, the alleged fears about the alleged threats from the western and southern sides do not exclude possible concern about the eastern vector, the expert adds. But for now, talking about the danger from the Russian army is irrelevant. Firstly, because Alexander Lukashenko himself explored it at the level of Belarus, and even with all that it may not be advisable if Moscow wants to use Belarusian soil again for an attack in Kyiv. Secondly, because it continues to envelop Russia en masse. On the subsequent development of an absentee appeal to Western countries that “we have a nuclear power behind us.”
“If he remembers the scenarios that involved his fellow dictators, then he understands that in the event (as he may imagine in nightmares) if a conditional coincidence occurs in order to overthrow him, he will not be able to save himself on his own. Naturally, in this case, Lukashenka will expect Russia. Therefore, he uses this rhetoric to show potential enemies what risks the radiation of his overthrows can take. The price, like Lukashenka, is nuclear war, Pavel Slyunkin believes.
Expressing concern that “NATOs have begun large-scale exercises along our borders” does not restore the importance of being prepared for different scenarios before doing the analysis.
– The Belarusian army needs to be ready for a threat from any side. She never worked eastbound. The group does not have a taboo to stop the reflection of the reflection of the Russian army. But yesterday Alexander Lukashenko said that it is necessary to proceed from how the situation is changing and how it falls under the new reality,” he clarifies.
“If this is preparation for a threat from the East, then it clearly starts from the wrong place”
– I don’t think that Lukashenka is seriously afraid of the invasion of Belarus by NATO armies. But one way or another, Minsk cannot oppose [потенциальным агрессорам] big army. Like the Ukrainian one, our army can only rely on mobile and territorial defense. And also the fact that the aggressor will get stuck in battles with the people’s militia or mobile units of special forces and special operations forces. Belarus staked on this at the level of conceptual military documents seven years ago, when they adopted a new Military Doctrine. And now Alexander Lukashenko just repeated what he had already worked on, the political analyst believes Artem Shraibman.
When asked if Lukashenka is afraid of Russia and not just the Western countries, the analyst noted that the politician most likely understands that he has less dangerous risk of developing her in the event of a hypothetical conflict than the same Ukrainian army.
– And certainly there will be less ideological charge and readiness of the Belarusian troops to resist the army, which they now consider their ally. Therefore, if this is preparation for some kind of threat from the East, then it manifests itself from the wrong place – let’s say Shraibman and providing as an example that the key to successful Ukrainian defense is their morale and resistance to their soil.
– Will all top generals and officers in Belarus be so ready if Russia decides that it needs to create a Union State on bayonets? I have big doubts.
“The game is not to protect oneself from the main outbreak, but to pacify it and submit to it”
Since 2020, Alexander Lukashenko has been positioned as the main attack in the rhetoric in the West, despite the absence of any evidence of plans, including to overthrow his government, says the director of the Political Sphere Institute Andrei Kazakevich. In his opinion, the rhetoric about the threat from the West or NATO is used solely to create a sense of attack, to justify failures, including economic ones, and as an argument for mobilizing a power bloc and supporting Lukashenka.
But if we talk about possible threats to the state, then Kazakevich believes that they come from them from Russia, which has repeatedly declared its desire to have control over Belarus. The expert believes that Alexander Lukashenko also understands this. Moreover, in the last two decades, before the events of 2020, he did not express any particular concerns.
“If you look at least at how the Russian authorities interpret the Belarusians, the Belarusian statehood, it becomes clear that the same discourse dominates there as in relation to Ukraine. That is, that the Belarusians are not an independent people, that the Belarusian statehood was created by Lenin or the Bolsheviks. In this logic, it is quite justified to think that, if the developments are favorable for Russia, it can take active and effective actions to change power in Belarus or to recommend the country’s incorporation into the Russian Federation. The problem is that Lukashenko does not think of the categories of Belarus, the nation – rather, only the categories of his own power. Therefore, many outbreaks from Russia are perceived as inevitable.
A political scientist of the offensive, which is quite natural to assume that the Kremlin has some plans for Belarus, and also the alleged contradictions between and the alleged actions of aviation against Ukraine, where Moscow is fighting, but claims that it has not attacked and is not going to occupy the territory.
– Lukashenka’s policy, in particular, throughout 2021, was aimed at pleasing Russia, fulfilling its wishes, for example, to go for integration, to support military aggression against Ukraine. All this is due to the fact that he means that Moscow is actually the key to his power. It is measured only thanks to Russia.
The main dilemma of Lukashenka is solved in the fact that he has no one else to rely on, the expert performs.
– Society is not consolidated around him. One can argue about how many people support him, but this is obviously not the vast majority. There is also no way to rely on the West. In the economic plane, Belarus is highly dependent on Moscow. Therefore, the game is not about protecting oneself from the primary outbreak, but about appeasing it and subordinating it in order to remain in power.