Explainer-Finland, Sweden weighs pros and cons of NATO membership
This content was published on May 11, 2022 – 16:23
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to the border to apply for NATO membership.
Finland, which shares a 1,300 km (810 km) border with Russia, and Sweden will announce their decisions in the coming days following warnings from Moscow that they may deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in the European Kaliningrad eclave if they do so. .
All applications will reinforce a tense wait for the months it takes to be ratified by all NATO members, although the Alliance and the White House have said they are convinced that any security concerns can be addressed in the meantime.
Here are some of the questions that have led to a radical reconsideration of the policy and what the next step may be towards joining the US-led alliance with 30 countries.
WHY ARE NOT SWEDEN AND FINLAND MEMBERS OF NATO?
– Both have been non-aligned since World War II, despite having small military forces, in relation to Russia.
Finland became independent from Russia in 1917 and fought two wars against it during World War II, during which it lost some territory to Moscow. Finland signed an agreement on friendship, co-operation and mutual assistance with Russia in 1948, which cemented a certain degree of economic and political dependence and isolated it militarily from Western Europe.
– The end of the Cold War, which led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, allowed Finland to step out of Russia’s shadow when the threat from Moscow diminished.
– It has relied on its own military deterrence and friendly relations with Moscow to maintain peace. But with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special operation,” Russian President Vladimir Putin looks anything but friendly.
– Sweden has not fought a war in 200 years and post-war foreign policy has focused on supporting democracy internationally, multilateral dialogue and nuclear disarmament.
– It drove down its military after the Cold War, hoping that in the event of a conflict it would be able to delay a Russian advance until help arrived. Putin’s offensive against Ukraine has made a guarantee of aid much more appealing.
– Many on the left in Sweden, however, are still suspicious of the US security agenda and NATO, which ultimately relies on the deterrence provided by the US nuclear arsenal.
– Both Finland and Sweden switched from formal neutrality to military freedom of alliance in 1995 when they joined the European Union.
Both have come ever closer to NATO in recent years, exchanging intelligence and participating in alliance exercises, in response to an increasingly belligerent Russia.
– Joining the alliance would bring Sweden and Finland under the umbrella of Article 5, which guarantees that an attack on a NATO ally is an attack on everyone.
HOW WIDE IS THE SUPPORT FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP?
– Surveys show that a substantial majority of Swedes return to NATO with a support of just over 60% in the latest survey and there is a majority in parliament for an application.
Sweden’s Social Democrats – the largest party and in power for most of the last century – have long fought for military freedom of alliance but have gone through their objections with a decision to join now on Sunday. They are generally expected to support membership.
– The Swedish Left Party – formerly the Communist Party – is still against membership, as is the Green Party, but if the Social Democrats change pace, it would create an overwhelming majority in the Riksdag.
Opinion polls show that support for membership in Finland has become even stronger than in Sweden, with many Finns aware of the long land border they share with Russia, while support in parliament for an application is also broad.
– The Finnish Parliament’s Defense Committee said this week that joining NATO was the best option for Finland to guarantee its national security.
On Thursday, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto is expected to announce his position on joining NATO, while Prime Minister Sanna Marin is also seen giving his views. Both are generally expected to come out to apply.
WHEN CAN THEY JOIN?
Finland has a NATO “alternative”, a kind of action plan that gives a mandate to apply if the security situation deteriorates, while the Swedish Parliament will present a new security policy review on Friday, although the latter is not expected to contain any explicit recommendation on NATO.
Sweden’s Social Democrats have called for a parliamentary debate on NATO until Monday. Should the party, as expected, return, the government can call a parliamentary vote to send through an application, but this is not formally required.
The Social Democrat Prime Minister Sanna Marin, who leads Finland’s five-party center-left coalition, and President Sauli Niinisto have been touring in various NATO member countries in recent weeks to secure support for a potential application.
Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, also a Social Democrat, has also held numerous meetings with NATO governments, including Britain’s Boris Johnson, who toured both Sweden and later Finland on Wednesday.
– There is no fixed time frame for the applications, but here are the steps in NATO’s membership process that would apply to Helsinki and Stockholm:
(Report by Simon Johnson and Niklas Pollard in Stockholm and Anne Kauranen in Helsinki; Edited by Robert Birsel, Mark Heinrich and Angus MacSwan)