New omikron variants are advancing, what does that mean for the Netherlands?
The corona crisis has faded into the background in the Netherlands. We have not had strict measures against the virus for weeks. Public holidays such as King’s Day and Liberation Day were actually celebrated in the same way this year as before corona.
But there are also countries where the coronavirus affects daily life. In South Africa and the United States, the number of infections and hospitalizations is increasing again. And the Chinese city of Shanghai has been under a strict lockdown for weeks. Is that a harbinger of what awaits the Netherlands, or should we not worry?
New variants
First South Africa. The corona wave there is caused by two new sub-variants of omikron: BA.4 and BA.5.
“They do show some more infections and hospital admissions,” says epidemiologist Alma Tostmann. “But it is difficult to say what the predictive value of this is for the situation in the Netherlands. For example, the vaccination rate there is a lot lower than here.”
In addition, South Africa has had to deal with a different omikron variant than we do during corona waves, instead of the BA.2 variant.
“Research has established that a BA.1 infection does not protect against the new variants,” says internist-infectiologist Chantal Bleeker-Rovers. “We do not yet know what the situation is with an infection with the BA.2 variant that was common in the Netherlands.”
rapid rise
UMC and the GGD Amsterdam. An analysis of corona tests showed that the new variants were responsible for 7 percent of the infections. Last week that was still 0.7 percent, then one test in the BA.4 contained a BA5 variant.
“That’s a very rapid increase,” says Bleeker-Rovers. “That could happen that we receive a new wave before the fall.”
Fortunately, there is a good chance that the new subvariants are no more sickening than previous omikron variants, says Bleeker-Rovers. “But a concern of agreements always leads to more deaths. And that can lead to more postponement of the weather, as with corona events.”
Strict lockdown
A new omikron variant has also emerged in the United States. “Which ultimately emerged to be beyond the variant we know here,” says Tostmann. “That immediately sounds very bad. But we recently had such a big wave in the Netherlands that we are not well protected, I expect. Although the American variant can certainly go here and around.”
Another place where the coronavirus has had a recent resurgence is the Chinese city of Shanghai. The 25 million inhabitants of that city have been removed from a strict lockdown for weeks. In certain parts of the city, residents are even required to stay at home all day. Although the outbreak is now over, according to the local government, many strict measures remain in place.
Catch-up care
Nevertheless, the general picture for the Netherlands remains positive. “We do agree as epidemiologists that broadly speaking it is becoming a milder virus,” says Tostmann. “In total, the waves become smaller and less violent. Only there can always be an outlier.”
If that outlier occurs, it could still have consequences for healthcare. Because the situation in the hospitals is not “quite precarious”, says Tostmann. “Not obtained in the ICU. But in terms of staff shortage, absenteeism and due to a bulk of catch-up care. If you only have a small increase in another variant, you immediately have the last of these in hospital care.”
And that there is already a lot of catch-up care on the shelf as a result of the previous corona waves. “If nothing more happens now in the field of Covid-19, it will take until next year before that backlog is eliminated and care is back to the old level,” says Tostmann. “I like that shocking†