The Netherlands has finally achieved group immunity, for the moment – Joop
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The number of corona infections is spectacular. Not only in the Netherlands but also in other countries, barring exceptions. The number of positive tests registered by the GGD has almost halved. It will also play a part in this that there is no longer any advice to be tested in the event of a positive self-test. The virus is still around. At the end of April, 13,000 people were officially tested in a week, but that is no longer a huge problem. Is the virus on its way back?
NOS late epidemiologist Quirine ten Bosch from the University of Wageningen (WUR) speaking. He explains the decrease in the fact that the majority of people have now been infected or are protected by the vaccine. According to an antibody test by blood bank Sanquin that has not yet been officially published, the virus was infected in the first two months of this year as well as throughout 2020 and 2021 combined.
“Group immunity has increased super fast this spring. That plays an important role at the moment.” The epidemiologist mainly looks at the end of the number of pieces halves. “The shorter that time is, the faster the numbers go down. The ‘half-life’ is now about a week, which is neat.”
Now we have to wait for a new variant of the virus that manages to break through the local defenses. According to Ten Bosch, that is only a matter of time, but it should not be a disaster. “If the virus continues to circulate considerably, but the immunity against disease remains well, that is not necessarily a bad thing, because people do not become very ill and there is less pressure on care. A high-risk group would of course prefer that. the virus is completely gone. Unfortunately, that is not plausible.”
According to the American virus fighter Dr. Anthony Fauci, classical herd immunity is not feasible, not in the US. Too few people are vaccinated there to achieve that situation. According to Fauci, the resistance is too weak and not enough to get rid of the virus. There needs to be a better vaccine that offers years of protection, he says.
The question is whether a revival of the virus has not already started. In South Africa, where it is now autumn, two new variants are causing an increase in hospital admissions. These are sub-variants of the omikron variant.
“Alarm is a big word, but these sub-variants clearly have some advantage,” says virologist Marion Koopmans of Erasmus MC. “It looks like they’re going to create a new wave in South Africa.” (…) In South Africa, it is estimated that at least 90 percent of the population has immunity to the coronavirus – partly through vaccination, but the vast majority of people through a previous infection. But after three months, the strength wanes – not from the spread of the new sub started of the fourth wave in South Africa, which was mainly carried out by BA.1.