a shortage of new housing to be feared?
After the sharp drop linked to the successive confinements of 2020, the production of new housing has generally started to rise again in the Pays de Savoie. Just like the prices.
However, if the dynamic should continue in the north of Haute-Savoie, the year 2022 promises to be marked by uncertainty for the markets of Annecy, Aix-les-Bains and Chambéry.
In question: a scarcity of land, the issuance of building permits at half mast, the electoral period of May-June, the economic news linked to the Ukrainian health crisis and the file.
The phenomenon of a shortage of new housing, which is already hitting Annecy and Aix-les-Bains hard, is likely to have a strong impact on Chambéry in turn.
The north of Haute-Savoie, still just as dynamic
“New construction in the Chablais is exploding,” observes Vincent Davy, president of the Federation of Real Estate Developers (FPI) of the Alps. And the figures show it well: 878 new homes were sold in 2021 in this sector in the north of Haute-Savoie, an increase of 14% compared to 2019 and 52% compared to 2020.
“Chablais has long lacked new housing and is catching up,” he observes. Many programs are thus emerging from the land of Douvaine to Evian, via Messery, Thonon-les-Bains or even Publier. On this axis on the shores of Lake Geneva, no less than forty programs are currently being marketed.
And 2022 promises to be just as prolific: more than 900 homes have been put up for sale. Despite this abundant supply, prices are rising sharply: €5,010 per m² on average, compared to €4,346 in 2019.
Further to the east, near Annemasse, new construction has also recovered with 460 homes sold (338 in 2020, 565 in 2019). Ditto in the Saint-Julien-en-Genevois sector, which has returned to its pre-crisis level with 242 new homes sold.
The momentum should continue this year, a sign that the cross-border job market has ultimately not been impacted by the health crisis. On the price side, these areas show a m² around €4,900, up 14% since 2019.
Chambéry, still as attractive as ever
“The market is experiencing a marked increase in Chambéry and its outskirts, in La Ravoire, La Motte-Servolex, Saint-Baldoph and Saint-Alban-Leysse”, explains Vincent Davy. Nearly 660 housing units were sold in 2021 in Greater Chambéry (+14% over one year). The concrete continues to flow in Chambéry and its outskirts for two reasons: its economic and demographic dynamism, as well as the constant interest of rental investors.
“In addition, 55% of new housing was sold to investors in 2021. This is less than in 2019 (69%) but much more than in Annecy (30%), he develops. The Chambéry basin clothes because the price per m2 remains one of the least expensive of the large cities in the region, while having high rents allowing to generate interesting rental yields. »
But between buyers of main residences and investors, the new supply is starting to dry up. Especially since building permits have been in sharp decline for several months. “We risk facing a real air pocket in 2022 with a scarcity of supply,” he warns. The FPI des Alpes is thus planning further price increases. The m² in new buildings now reaches €3,816, compared to €3,493 in 2019.
The new, in free fall in Aix-les-Bains and Annecy
Increasingly popular, particularly by Parisians, Lyonnais and residents of Annecy, Aix-les-Bains is experiencing an unprecedented real estate boom. Prices are exploding both in the old and in the new.
From €4,137 in 2019, the m² in Aix-les-Bains and in the 28 municipalities of Grand Lac has risen to €4,600! High inflation also due to the lack of new programs. Only 353 homes were sold in 2021, compared to 500 in 2019 (-29%). A phenomenon of shortage amplified by the health crisis which seems to be setting in and which should continue in 2022.
“Too few building permits are issued in Aix-les-Bains, and developers have more difficulty in increasing the square meters of land available. Land which, moreover, is being negotiated more and more expensive, ”explains the president of the FPI des Alpes, deploring the impact of these factors on the final sale price of housing. It takes an average budget of €293,000 to buy a new apartment in Aix, compared to €241,000 two years ago.
Finally, the situation is just as critical in Greater Annecy. Between the health crisis, the lack of available land and blocked building permits, the new home market is at its worst. Only 950 new homes were sold in 2021. Production has not returned to its pre-crisis level, and 2022 looks set to be even worse.
“Only 571 new homes are in the pipeline,” worries Vincent Davy, who estimates that at least 1,200 new homes are needed per year to meet demand in the Annecy basin, relax the market and avoid soaring prices.
Because the average price of new m² in Annecy now exceeds that of Lyon: €5,386, against €5,262. Conclusion: finding new accommodation in the Annecy area has become very complicated.
“Rare programs are thus emerging from the ground, especially in the surrounding reporting markets: Metz-Tessy, Seynod or even Viuz-la-Chiésaz”, concluded the president of the FPI des Alpes.
New zoning: good news for new buildings
This is good news for investors and first-time buyers who want to buy new. The Minister in charge of Housing Emmanuel Wargon announced the change of zoning of 39 municipalities in Haute-Savoie and 7 in Savoie.
These are now reclassified in zone A or B1. A zoning that is important since these common investments become eligible for the Pinel location device and the zero-rate loan (PTZ) for the acquisition of a main residence in new construction.
Objective: to facilitate the production of new housing in the territory of Savoie and thus eventually relax the market, both for acquisition and rental.
These are mainly municipalities located at altitude (Courchevel, Tignes, Val d’Isère, Chamonix, La Clusaz, Les Houches, etc.), but also those around Lake Annecy (Veyrier-du-Lac, Menthon-Saint- Bernard, Talloires, Doussard, Saint-Jorioz and Sevrier) and on the shores of Lake Geneva (Messery, Nernier, Yvoire, etc.).