On March 10, I published an article «Preparing for Defeat, ”which argues that Russia may be heading for complete defeat in its war in Ukraine. At the time, it attracted a lot of attention, and a lot of people thought I was very optimistic. So far, in addition to this prediction has been confirmed. In fact, the Russians were defeated in their attempts to conquer Kyiv and withdrew from northern Ukraine in early April.

Subsequently, they sharply reduced their strategic goals, and the war entered a new phase in the east and south, where Moscow tried to capture the remaining parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as take control of the destruction of Mariupol. (great, but Ukrainian defenders are still there after more than eight weeks of war).

The prevalence changed again, with the conclusion that in the open openness of southeastern Ukraine, Russians are recovering better than around Kyiv, so they recognized a single commander of the theater of operations and focused on one front rather than four. Many observers continue to argue that both sides are moving towards a protracted stalemate that can only be resolved through negotiations.

I believe that it is not the case that the Ukrainians will be able to oust the Russians from the territories they have seized. There are several reasons for this.

Russia simply does not have manpower or reserve troops

First, the United States and its NATO allies, in response to Vladimir Zelensky’s request for military assistance, are now operating much more equipment in Ukraine, such as long-range artillery, drones and aircraft, nullifying Russia’s greater firepower advantage. Although we do not know that they are lost today as Ukrainians, some suggest that Kyiv may now actually have a 3-1 advantage over Moscow, which is best suited for a successful offensive.

The fighting spirit of the Russians is likely to remain extremely low. Units withdrawn from the north of Ukraine were thrown back into battle in the Donbass before they had time to rest and regroup. To date, they have found huge losses in manpower and equipment, apparently losing a couple more generals last week. Ukrainians are even more motivated to win now that they have witnessed atrocities committed by Russians in the occupied territories.

It is unclear whether Russians are able to learn lessons and quickly adapt to what has changed. correctly, they did not learn to effectively coordinate a large overall operation and continued to rely on rough firepower to move forward. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, transmitted communications very well to their subordinate command units, while maintaining overall strategic control over their forces.

Russia is simply not a force or a reserve force, they could call in because their army in a vacant position is depleted.

What worries me is that some of my conservative colleagues have gone from attacking the Biden administration for you, doing not enough to support Ukraine before the war, to claiming that we are doing too much. in line with this line, Ukraine’s success in the east will lead to escalation with chemical or biological weapons or even the use of nuclear arsenals. In this, they agree with left-wing pacifists, who from the beginning used the argument of the Third World War to protect themselves from serious support for Ukraine.

No one should rule out the possibility of escalation when potential rates are as high as they are now. One of the arguments against the irreversible zone was that, in the case of the United States or NATO, it is currently attacking Russian targets on Russian territory and crossing an important red border.

However, I believe that the escalation of Russia and its use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) remains an unlikely outcome. Chemical or nuclear weapons simply will not save the Russians’ position in preparation and will provoke an escalation to a much higher level of NATO involvement. They are unlikely to respond to the symmetrical use of WMD, but there are many options for how NATO can go to war with conventional weapons. (for example, actually establishing a fieldless zone or striking the bases on which the WMD was created). And this, too, could do enormous damage to Russia’s position. If the Russians seriously lose to the Ukrainians, think what will happen if a NATO country intervenes.

The political consequences of Russia’s decisive defeat have not yet been felt in Europe. Viktor Orban won the election by a wide margin, as did Oleksandr Vucic in Serbia. Last weekend, Emmanuel Macron achieved the victory of Marine Le Pen by a decent margin. But many observers say a larger electorate in the first round voted against Macron and that the proportion of Le Pen’s votes increases with each election. Donald Trump’s sympathies for Russia, which seem to me to be blatantly treacherous, do not seem to have done much harm to his position in the Republican Party.

However, the war in Ukraine is not over yet. If in the coming weeks it ends with Russia’s expulsion of the territory it bought after February 24, Putin will destroy his brilliant new army without any territorial gain and lead his country into isolation at the North Korean level. Failure at this level will eventually have consequences both for Russia itself and for all the populists who have lined up for them.

However, Ukraine’s struggle will not end with this defeat of Russia. The economic blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports must be lifted if it is to have a viable economic future. NATO must pay attention to the opening of Ukrainian ports and the protection of peaceful passage to and from the country. This was just the beginning of the much-needed recovery effort that is so needed.

But there is a possibility. Before the war, Ukraine’s greatest weakness was the domination of oligarchs in its economy and political system. The internal balance of power has changed dramatically since the beginning of the invasion, when the oligarchs were the first to flee the country. Rinat Akhmetov, a Donbass oligarch who claimed to represent the interests of Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine, testified to how his Azovstal steel plant was bombed and bought in the last heroic battle with the Russian occupiers. There will be a great opportunity to strengthen Ukraine’s national identity around a new set of symbols and balances of power, as well as to overcome the country’s corrupt heritage, which existed until February 24, 2022.

Translation of HB

First published on americanpurpose.com

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