Putin’s war in Ukraine pushed Finland towards NATO
Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned the reasons for the unprovoked attack on Ukraine The possibility of NATO enlargement. Now a brutal war seems to bring NATO right to his door.
Every day, Finland and Sweden – non-military European Union countries – are expected to apply to join the 30-member alliance. NATO and U.S. officials have said they would welcome.
This historic change is an early sign of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is changing Europe’s post-Cold War security architecture and reshaping world maps in ways that may seem decades.
Finland’s accession would double NATO’s land border with Russia. Two new members would bring the full power of the alliance far north and strengthen a confirmed presence Around the Baltic Sea.
NATO, the United States and the EU are now planning long-term isolation of Russia, which means the return of isolation like the Cold War after years of coexistence and cooperation.
“This is one of those moments in European history,” said Alexander Stubb, the former Prime Minister of Finland. “We are looking at the semi-permanent division of Europe into two parts.”
On the other side, he said, you have an aggressive, authoritarian Russia and its war partner Belarus. On the other hand, you have more than 30 democracies that are more or less united by a common enemy.
“Everything is now one military strategic arena, especially if you look at it from the Russian side,” said Anna Wieslander, director of Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council.
“Putin fell wrong,” he said. “He had no idea.”
In a way, this maritime change in European security seems the least surprising in Finland, a country whose anger and concern for Putin’s actions spurred the change.
During the eight decades when Finnish soldiers on skis helped defeat the Soviet invaders, the country joined the EU in 1995 and became a close NATO partner, while trying to gain and understand Russia. But it has never taken its eyes off the border.
Tomi Timonen, deputy head of Niirala’s border guard, said those living and working in the area were shocked, but not surprised by Putin’s war. People here know Russia, he said. “Like all Finns, we are on our toes.”
The scenes in Ukraine evoke painful memories for Finland.
In the Winter War of 1939-1940, the country fought against the Soviet Union but suffered severely, losing people and territories. Since then, the country has focused heavily on defense, said Henri Vanhanen, a foreign policy expert and adviser to the Center-Right Coalition Party. “It comes from our collective memory,” he said.
The capital Helsinki began building civil shelters in the 1940s. One facility in the 1960s, designed to protect up to 9,000 people from bombings and chemical attacks, is still operating as a parking lot. The city also has shelters used as a sports center, swimming pool and ice rink – but they can be ready for emergency use within 72 hours.
Tomi Rask, a contingency expert at the Helsinki Rescue Department, said images of the devastating bombings in Ukraine, including people’s recourse to emergency shelters, have sparked interest in protecting the population.
The focus of readiness extends to the military. In Finland, there is compulsory military service for men and voluntary military service for women. The country can bring together an army of 280,000 soldiers as well as about 900,000 reservists.
“We never disbanded the army after the Cold War; We invested in it, ”said Kai Sauer, Undersecretary of State for Foreign and Security Policy in Finland.
“The readiness to defend the country is very high,” he said. “It may sound old-fashioned, but it’s the result of our history and our geographical location.”
NATO officials and defense analysts described the Finnish forces as strong and relatively well funded. Just before the Ukrainian invasion, Finland completed the purchase of 64 F-35 fighters from US defense giant Lockheed Martin.
On the island of Santahamina within Helsinki, the army trains troops for city warfare and drives conscripts in live fire drills. They were followed on a sunny April afternoon by Ari Helenius, a battalion commander who had served alongside NATO forces in Kosovo.
Finnish soldiers have been working with NATO since the 1990s. Both Finland and Sweden participated in operations in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq. Both forces are highly interoperable with NATO forces.
The country intensified co-operation with NATO during Russia’s accession to Crimea, but Finland remained officially non-aligned. Finns felt safer outside the union.
Putin’s full-scale attack on Ukraine virtually changed the situation overnight. Most Finns now believe they are safer within NATO.
“If Putin is able to slaughter his Slavic brothers, siblings and cousins in Ukraine, there is nothing to stop him from doing so in Finland as well,” former prime minister Stubb said.
Helenius said that the situation in Ukraine is in the minds of young conscripts. “As a professional soldier, our job is to tell them they’re not worried,” he said.
Ukraine is also in the minds of the general public. Meri Leppänen, a spokesman for the Guards Regiment on the island, said the war had reminded the country “why we do what we do”.
He said shooting with rifles and anti-tank weapons so close to town caused noise complaints. Since February 24, no one has called them to complain about loud military training.
Retired truck driver Jaakko Toropainen said he was neutral about NATO membership, but the attack changed his thinking.
His uncle died in the Winter War, and the country lost a lot, he said. Finland needs “all possible help” so that it does not happen again.
So far, he said, “I just hope the other party doesn’t do anything stupid.”
At the Vaalimaa border crossing point, a couple of hours outside Helsinki, there is already a change in Finland’s relations with Russia.
Not long ago, the checkpoint was full of trucks, with tourists and cross-border shoppers heading for outlet malls – symbols of how Europe remained tied to Russia despite the occupation of Georgia, the annexation of Crimea and everything else.
Thanks to the pandemic and the war, a few hundred people now visit the border crossing point, which has been built for thousands of people a day, says Captain Jussi Pekkala, the head of the Vaalimaa border crossing point. Some Russians with EU-approved vaccines are still visiting, and an occasional transport truck is sawing, but parking lots are empty and Zsar Outlet Village looks quiet. The guards greet EU citizens leaving Russia and Ukrainians fleeing the war.
It seems unlikely that traffic will recover. While NATO membership has no effect on border policy, most people seem to accept that joining NATO would likely lead to a division of a new era between the West and Russia, somehow reminiscent of the Cold War.
One lingering question is whether Finland and Sweden are pursuing NATO membership in parallel. Sweden has so far been slower than Finland, but most analysts believe they will find a way to coordinate. Wieslander said that if Russia intends to retaliate, “it is better if it happens once.”
Moscow has warned of unspecified “sanctions” and said so introduce nuclear weapons In the Baltic Sea region if NATO grows. But European officials and analysts are for the most part played down Russia already has nuclear weapons within range.
Janne Kuusela, Director of Defense Policy at the Ministry of Defense, said he did not expect Russian designers to make major changes to the country’s attitude.
“It really wouldn’t be a huge change in Russia’s military census,” he said. Rather, a NATO transfer “would be a blow to their self-esteem and dignity, as they have long said they do not want this to happen.”
Undersecretary of State Sauer said that Finland monitors hybrid or covert attacks. “I can only say we’re ready,” he said.
He sees the confrontation lasting. “Our foreign policy and security challenge is a functioning coexistence with Russia, and we have seriously tried to find ways to coexist and cooperate,” he said.
“Thanks to Russian aggression, the situation has changed,” he continued. “It takes time to find a way out.”