Is the Kremlin trying to stage a coup in Bulgaria? Political scientists say
Against this background, the team of Actualno.com look for the bigger picture. See the blitz opinions of the six political scientists who comment on the domestic political effects of the gas crisis.
Assoc. Prof. Petar Cholakov – political scientist and associate professor of sociology at the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences:
This is an attempt to shake the hands of the Bulgarian government by the Kremlin, because no one should have illusions that this is a decision only of Gazprom. Such companies have always been a strategic tool in the hands of every Kremlin. In this sense, setting the unrealistic condition for paying for gas in rubles is an attempt to destroy the cabinet. Let’s not forget that all this happened to start the war of conquest on the part of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.
Prof. Rumyana Kolarova – political scientist and lecturer at Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”:
This accumulation of unresolved issues and the complication of the situation leads me to think that early elections are becoming more and more necessary, not so inevitable. It is obvious that in this government of each party is included an agreement contrary to its priorities. We observe constant mutual blocking of the activity. More importantly, none of the parties in the coalition can count on its voters to support the cabinet’s strategic line. In this sense, in a new election, the parties must face their voters with clear positions and goals, and not, like the last one, with a single goal – to “erase” GERB. Only then will there be a clear opposition between left-right, pro-European and anti-European parties. On the basis of these divisions, a real working coalition will already be formed, which will adequately deal with such crises. I do not think that the problem is in some 100 percent incompetence of this government, but soon in their inability to make a decision and create a coherent policy.
Assoc. Prof. Milen Lyubenov – political scientist and lecturer at Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”:
The situation should not be so dramatized at the moment, because there are ways to compensate for the lack of Russian gas from Romania, Greece and Turkey. One thing should be clear – yes, Bulgaria is heavily dependent on Gazprom, but not even that much gas is needed. In this sense, it is an attempt by the Kremlin to blackmail the Bulgarian government and shake it up in this more complex domestic political situation. Why this is done only for Poland and Bulgaria – because both countries have expired contracts with Gazprom, and a month ago it became clear that we will not renew it. From the point of view of the reactions in Bulgaria themselves – those of the opposition are advice, but it is more embarrassing to the president, which I would consider too controversial and even dangerous, because he almost blamed the Bulgarian government for stopping the gas, not the Kremlin . So I think that with this position, President Radev did not shake the government, but strengthened it, in view of what Cornelia Ninova said shortly after. Regarding the position of GERB and Borissov, however, it is appropriate to ask him another question – where is the roadmap for the development of the gas transmission network in Bulgaria?
Assoc. Prof. Boris Popivanov – political scientist and lecturer at Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”:
A month ago you signaled that you are going to protect Bulgaria and the EU countries that refuse to pay for gas in rubles. In this sense is the important validity of the statements of Kiril Petkov and Alexander Nikolov that Bulgaria is ready for a month ahead to cover its gas needs, but also that there are opportunities for alternative supplies. However, the question of at what cost this will happen is of paramount importance. Although this uncertainty and hesitation govern the good majority is not threatened, the appearance of the interior is a solder, as the main opposition party GERB is not in a position to demand resignation – as they are to blame for this country, nor be problematic diversification. The legacy of Borissov’s rule confirms the thesis that the government will remain in power. The main question here is another – whether we will move towards compliance with the demands of Russia, or we have a plan “B” to provide prospects for the Bulgarian economy. However, if one of these options is not implemented, the economic situation will be able to sweep the government on its own, even without a position.
Mira Radeva – political analyst and sociologist:
The outstretched position is the most disadvantageous. It is clear that for us and for Europe, the choice of values is the most important and it has been made for a long time. It is a fact that the economic losses will be great, but for me the problem is that we will lose ourselves – our morals, our values, we will lose the big picture. The triviality in this case is inappropriate, because the battle in Ukraine is a battle for Europe, and this is a topic we need to talk about much more today. Regarding the position of the ruling coalition in Bulgaria, I am extremely outraged. They lack height, we have no real political leadership.
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Assoc. Prof. Tatiana Burudjieva – political scientist and lecturer at Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”:
The effect of creating the situation is expressed in very sharp scandals during the day. However, we all know that there will be gas anyway, because my supply is not only from Russia, so it is a matter of political decisions. However, we see these scandals between the presidency and the government, as well as within the partners in power – all this speaks indirectly that external crises exacerbate the domestic political landscape. Things are starting to reach a critical point, because at this stage the quadruple coalition is showing a failure to make consistent political decisions.
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The interviews were collected by Ivaylo Iliev
Footage: BGNES, iStock