Why Vucic and Orban are instructive examples for Bulgaria
Comments published last October entitled “Is Populism End in Eastern Europe”. The answer, unfortunately, is no.
On April 3, Victor Orbán achieved his fourth consecutive victory in Hungary, winning 54% of the national vote. The United opposition bloc is 20 points behind Hungary. In neighboring Serbia, Alexander Vucic is running for a new presidential term in the first round, and its Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) retains the lead in parliament, although it does not have a majority.
The electoral triumph of Orban and Vucic is indisputable proof that both they and their model of government continue to enjoy popularity in Central Europe and the Western Balkans.
What is the success of the populists?
The triumph of the populists
In the first place, their success is due to the fact that it controls the political arena. The race with the opposition is not on equal terms.
The most striking examples are the media. After twelve years in power, Orbán controls all television channels, publishing, and all major news portals on the Internet.
The candidate for the united position, Petar Marki-Zay, received only 5 minutes of air time and the sending simply did not reach the citizens. Moreover, Orbán managed to portray Marki-Zay, a conservative politician and former member of the ruling Fidesz, as a puppet of former Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany.
The Democratic Coalition, led by Gyurcsany, is part of the bloc. The situation is similar in Serbia, where television and popular tabloids are loyal to Vucic, reliance and state funding. Public funds are also used irretrievably for campaigning for the benefit of those in power.
The other trick tested is the manipulation of electoral rules. Hungary’s mixed electoral system – a national list plus 106 single-member constituencies that vote in just one round and wins the most votes – makes a huge offer to Orbán.
With more than half of the vote, it has secured a small majority of 135 deputies in the 199-seat parliament. The result was similar after the upcoming elections in 2018, when Fidesz did not even cross the 50 percent threshold.
The third way with cash flows and customer dependencies. After so many years in power, Vucic and Orban have lost much of their influence in small towns and rural areas. Whether it is an appointment in the public sector, the distribution of state parties or EU funds, the catches are old and tried.
There is no need to be deceived: Fidesz – and to a much lesser extent the SNA – is popular because part of society sees them as an opportunity for social support and material gain. Hungary is brighter in this regard, as the country is richer and more suitable with more opportunities to buy support.
“Peace, stability, Vucic”
Vucic and Orban were also lucky during the war in Ukraine. The Serbian leader presented himself as a guarantee of peace and stability. On the one hand, he refused to join Western sanctions against Russia, on the other, he competed with far-right candidates such as Bosko Obradovic (from the Doors movement) or Milica Djurdjevic Stamenkovski (from the Patrons), who are in extreme anti-Western positions.
Vucic is undoubtedly a candidate for the status quo, and this has brought negatives. A broad protest front was soon mobilized against him, when literally the entire political spectrum declared itself against the investment project of the Rio Tinto mine.
However, in the conditions of the war, even in the country where the memories of the catastrophic conflict and international sanctions are alive, the status quo is the best political option. It is no coincidence that the election slogan of the SNA was changed from “Deeds speak” to “Peace, stability, Vucic”. Instead of cutting ribbons, opening highways and factories, a promise that Serbia will not suffer from the new war in Europe.
Brussels bureaucrats, Soros, Green
Something similar happened in Hungary: the government inflated and exploited people’s fears. Orban assured citizens that his remaining in power is a guarantee that the country will not be involved in the conflict.
The united position was presented by the pro-government media as irresponsible adventurers who earn, which Hungary can pay dearly and too dearly.
Orbán publicly refused to send weapons and ammunition to Ukraine because he agreed to deploy NATO forces on Hungarian territory to deter Russia. In doing so, he used the critical words addressed to him by Vladimir Zelensky for political points in front of the voters.
And when it became clear in the late hours of April 3 that Fidesz had won a landslide victory, Orbán loudly announced that he had prevailed over Zelensky, putting him on the list of external enemies along with the Brussels bureaucrats and George Soros.
And where is Bulgaria
The Hungarian and Serbian examples are instructive for Bulgaria. Unfortunately, many of the components of the technical model of management are in our country.
The systematic misuse of public funds, including EU funds, the conquered media, the lack of transparency and public affairs, the anti-Western sentiments of the middle electorate are a fact.
For better or worse, however, there is no populist leader in Bulgaria capable of concentrating power in the extent to which Vucic or Orban have succeeded. Borissov ruled for more than a decade as part of a power cartel with multiple corporate and political shareholders, not as a sole ruler. High-level corruption is an obstacle to Bulgaria’s democratic development, but also an obstacle to consolidating an authoritarian system.
Unfortunately, this may change over time if a more capable political entrepreneur emerges. This and EU membership will not help. Orban, and he and Marin Le Pen in France, exactly.
* Opinions presented in the “Opinion” section may not take into account the position of Free Europe.