3.6 million have already been infected in Portugal, but there are conditions for the mask to fall in April
On the seventh day of April 2022, and two years and a month after the virus entered Portugal, the figures from the Directorate-General for Health reveal that about 35% of the total population has already been infected by this virus, especially as larger songs. deity. In all and until yesterday, the country accounts for more than 3.6 million infected people, more precisely 3,658,370, and almost 22,000 deaths (21,844).
Only cases this week, we have almost 30 thousand new ones (29,579). Yesterday was the day that recorded the lowest number of new infections, 9191, when no day before it had been 10,360. Professor Carlos Antunes, from the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, who is part of the team that has been modeling the evolution of the disease since the beginning of the pandemic, explains to DN that we have helped “a very slow trend”.
At the moment, and according to the data analyst, the new number of cases is falling in all age groups, including the oldest, since the age of 80, and this was the major concern, because it maintained a trend of concern above half March. “It’s going down, very slowly, but it still maintains a daily average of around 600 cases,” he says.
But the downward trend is also beginning to be registered in deaths. This week, in fact, was the lowest number since the beginning of March, 12 deaths on Wednesday, yesterday this number went back to 21 deaths.
Carlos Antunes, who now has an average daily population of 17 deaths and that mortality in 14 days is 8 deaths per million. “If this rate will affect the beginning of the week, 20 will affect humans right at the beginning of the minimum barrier, 20 years will follow the risk barrier per million inhabitants.”
The only indicator that continues to resist the downward trend is admissions. The Science teacher maintains that the number has remained stable for a number of weeks, between 1100 and 1150, of which about 60 are admissions to intensive care. These are not worrying numbers, but the analyst cannot explain this trend enough because “there is no information from the health authorities in order to understand that the indicator does not follow the decrease in the number of health authorities in order to understand that the indicator does not keep up with the decline in the number of health authorities”.
Carlos Antunes says that, from a purely theoretical point of view, the justification can be maintained in two situations: “Either we maintain the same situation as some time ago, of people hospitalized for other reasons who tested positive for covid-19, it continues to feed the number of hospitalizations foreseen or as he already had as a reference, the probably to be in agreement with a more sanitary or sanitary situation, which does not have a number of hospitalizations foreseen. The professor considers it necessary to wait “another week or two to to be able to observe the impact of the drop in the number of cases and understand why hospitalizations are not decreasing”.
Mask should be only for hospitals and homes
The week, the one in which Easter is celebrated and the only one with school holidays, will be a new challenge for the evolution of the disease. The professor of the Faculty of Sciences even advise that “the same protective care be maintained”.
“It is normal that there is greater mobility in urban areas, which can cause the interior and that a resurgence of more cases”, he underlines. However, it is expected that “the use of a mask will be enough to stop a significant increase in cases, which does not allow the development of a new epidemic wave. As happened with Carnival, when a rise in infections was significant”.
In the week, on the 13th of April, the Government will assess whether or not from the 18th onwards it maintains the mandatory use of a mask in closed spaces. Asked by the DN about whether the country is already prepared for this to happen, Carlos Antunes says that “there are conditions for this to be possible”.
The trend points to that, from the 19th or 20th of April, the country can reach 20 deaths per million inhabitants in 14 days. “If this happens, it is possible to release the use of the mask. In my opinion, the only situations in which tolerance should be maintained are hospitals, relatives and other institutions with elderly people.”