What price will Belarus pay for participation in military aggression?
The image of Belarusians as fighters for a democratic future without Lukashenka changed in the blink of an eye on February 24, when Russian troops launched an offensive from Belarusian territory to Ukrainian missiles. And the Belarusian dissidents were the first to notice this change.
“People who have collectively been excluded from the country. And according to various estimates, these are about 200-300 thousand people who have left since 2020, which occurred today in the Spanish countries, and in the same Moldova or Georgia, occur in situations under the Convention and, in case of danger, even danger,” says an expert on Belarus of the German Marshall Fund Marina Rahley.
At the same time, according to Rakhley, the vast majority of Belarusians strongly oppose the war in Ukraine. Be that as it may, the current domestic political situation did not allow such a protest to be held in August and September 2020.
“One and a half years of political repressions in Belarus do not stop,” Rakhley explains. – More than 1,000 people who have gathered behind bars today have been recognized as participants in the meetings. You can get into the colony for several years for private correspondence. What you are interested in today on Facebook may be read out in court tomorrow. Again, people had negative emotions because of the photos from the marches on Instagram, which at that time had already been around for probably a year.”
According to the expert, Belarus is de facto considered an occupied territory of Russia:
“In fact, the Kremlin prevented the occupation of Ukraine and has already very quietly occupied Belarus. And the Ukrainians who defend independence, on the main issues, protect the entire region from Putin. And it is clear that if he loses this war and loses power in Russia, then Alexander Lukashenko will lose his last, his only defender that he has.”
As for the economy, the decision hurt all sectors of the Belarusian industry on a scale that Belarus has not yet considered, the economist Sergey Chaly:
“You can consume as much as you want, that Belarus itself consumes food, but almost all of this depends on critical imports. This is seed material. Not to mention even the cereals – it’s only about potatoes in the order, in my opinion, 60% of the seed material is imported material. Everything, as it were, additives in feed for animal husbandry or poultry farming is imported from the Baltic states and so on. That is, it means a serious drop in productivity, output. The absence of just really present, it will affect almost everywhere. From all medicine, surgery, dentistry… It’s simply impossible to imagine what will happen when these supplies run out. No one expected this war to start, and no one in healthcare accepted months-long stocks of components, ingredients there, or no one made spare parts.
Due to the fact that in the near future there will be a shortage of goods on the Belarusian markets, similar to what was observed in the early 1990s. But this then-deficit was compensated by “shuttle traders” who brought consumer goods from Poland. This option is not possible.
“In any case, a person is just waiting for the initial income. And they will face the radical needs of their needs, – Sergei Chaly predicts. – Optimistic estimates for this year are 25%, a more realistic estimate is 40%. With a drop in income, for example, twofold. How much their expenses will increase, how much their needs will decrease – it will be monstrous indeed. This is incomparable to any crises that have been experienced there, well, since the 90s. In fact, even with the 90s, it is impossible to face this situation.”
If the war in Ukraine drags on, it may look like the de-industrialization of the Belarusian economy and large labor emigration, as happened in Moldova in the early 1990s, the expert believes.