Forecasts: Poland benefited from the reconstruction of Ukraine
Rafał Sadoch of the Brokerage House, incl. He cites good readings of PMI’s March outlets in Germany and several other countries. – Fighting in Ukraine continues and financial markets pass them on the agenda. Major stock indices have already recovered the twisted wave after the insertion of the insert, notes mBank’s chemicals.
The American S & P500 index and the Polish WIG20 index are today at levels higher than on the day before the Russian attack on Ukraine. Olympic investors Olympic, though the United States is introducing further sanctions against the peace. On the other hand, the sanctions of the European Union are limited in nature. There will be no embargoes on Russian energy resources. The Kremlin can only worry about American concrete and the EU, it all depends on Russian gas. This year, the EU comes from 2/3 of supplies from Russia.
Everything is available for investors from war in member countries. Additionally, in Poland, governments that edit themselves for changes that have an impact on the “Polish Deal”. – The climate for ours, including the brand, may improve due to the identification of the first PIT rate lowering the price from up to 12%. and after granting Poland money from the National Reconstruction Plan – predicts Łukasz Wardyn from CMC Markets.
He adds that the situation situation in favor of the economic situation will be politics. – The feet were raised very strongly by the Hungarians, and a little earlier by the Czechs. Markets expecting the National Bank of Poland to make a similar move. If this happens, Łukasz Wardyn will perform for the benefit of the banks’ listing on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
The serious increase in interest rates in Poland is related to the need for cooperation. In March it may be at the 10 percent stage. The device for NBP charts shows that from 2022 inflation with 50% will be in chapter 9.3-12%. The projection formulated in 2021 predicted an increase in prices by 5.1-6.5%. Ten jumps expected on the drastic progress in prices and prices of raw materials, and above all, similar natural materials.
Such a serious matter that consumers are provided with a reduction of money for current expenses. This, in turn – in an extreme scenario – may result in the emergence of stagflation. It is a subscription initiative with GDP in decline or its state, i.e. state. As part of the preparations, making the publicizing markets available, they make available on the brink of invisibility, enable access, enable access to the acquired and made public, to make it public, to make it public (especially by calling our housing).
In the last point of 2021, the GDP growth in Poland was 7.3%. According to the latest data from the European Commission, at the end of 2022, GDP would increase by 5.5%. It seems, however, that this task, due to the situation, is no longer realistic. S&P Global Ratings has lowered its GDP growth forecast in Poland this year from 5 to 3.6 percent. This has not been achieved, so the risk of staflation in our country is the result.
On the other hand, the rights of budgetary governments to increase public finances are growing. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki saw the recipe for unsuccessful changes to the allowances in the “Polish Lada” in the reduction of the part of the PIT part from 17 to 12 percent. combination with the liquidation of the relief for the class of light. Entry to the entrance from July 1, i.e. within the tax year. The government itself claims that there will be one beneficial for 13 Polish members, but it will result in a loss of income. In addition, there is no state loan of any kind, meaning the reform queue will be financed through the imposition of a tax loan.
The market reacted to joint governments with a steel (representation) of Polish owners of treasury bonds. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds reaches 5%. And it has been at the level of 10 years. It is therefore on the sealed review that the Ministry of Finance will issue new bonds at the future, which will in the future include terms for increased maintenance and maintenance. Pekao SA economists forecasted for 2022 of public finance from 1.9 to 3.7 percent. GDP. Their later, a year later, up to 4 percent. GDP.
Polsat Plus Group and Polsat Foundation together for children from Ukraine
Łukasz Wardyn from CMC Markets says investors are terrified of the scale in Poland. They assume that it will only increase in the first half of this year, it will start to decline in the third-fourth half. In addition, there is something that can make Poland a major beneficiary of the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. For this reason, the nutrition and nutrition fonts for the main menu are expected.
Łukasz Wardyn guarantees, however, that before Ukraine becomes the main construction site, climatic conditions must be met. It will be necessary for Ukraine to sign a truce that will not become a fictional state dependent on the aggressor.
Jacek Brzeski