NATO is back to work but still has a lot of homework to do
NATO is back. NATO countries will hold an additional summit in Brussels next week, in the presence of US President Biden. The latter advanced for existential around the military alliance. Trump pleads to find NATO a waste of money. After trade disputes with Germany, he threatened to withdraw American soldiers from Europe. Countries that invest too little in defense were humiliated. At the latest summit in Brussels, NATO radiated steadfastness and unity. The brutal war that Vladimir Putin has started against Ukraine has put everyone back in line, under American leadership. That is good news and a clear lesson: apparently NATO only shines when a neighboring non-NATO country is attacked.
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NATO countries must think for themselves how to anchor their alliance so that it becomes less sensitive to the geowinds. In times of war as well as peace, it must be clear what NATO is for. Doubt sound undermines the deterrent effect of the alliance. NATO says it does not want to be actively involved in war in Ukraine, because it could lead to a much larger nuclear. A very valid point, but the question is whether the alliance can intervene intellectually, organizationally and strategically if it were prepared to do so.
Last week, Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) visited Lithuania on Monday. Dutch soldiers have been part of a NATO mission there for five years now. “It’s serious now, five years ago it was still theoretical,” said Rutte. That’s only half true: it was serious five years ago, but that was insufficiently recognized at the time, especially in Western Europe. NATO leaders have now decided to strengthen the eastern flank considerably† A start has already been made on this in Poland and the Baltic States. In addition, there will be four additional multinational ‘battle groups’ in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. In total, there are now some 40,000 military personnel directly under NATO’s supreme command. The military’s strength in the air and at sea is greatly increased. This spring, NATO is making plans to better defend the future.
Ironically, everything Poetry used to say is all coming true because of its war in Ukraine. NATO is now doing its homework. Sweden and Finland have always withheld NATO membership from Russia’s property. The call to become a member is now also louder there. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine know that they will not join NATO anytime soon, but will be reduced in the coming decades and continue to strive for it.
NATO says it has one red line: protection of NATO territory. The fact that outside the country civilians are being trampled on human rights may be a reason to integrate (see Serbia in 1999), but the Ukrainians now know that not. For the time being, aiming to help the conflict with a nuclear power not to grow larger than the Ukraine without reluctance. But what does NATO do as Russia of nuclear weapons? Until recently, these are unthinkable scenarios that require careful consideration. An attack on one is an attack on all. A tough guarantee, but it has never been tested in Europe. Hopefully it stays that way.
A version of this article also in NRC in the morning of March 28, 2022