Lithuania is a “canary” of the world order.
Lithuania – 2.8 million The population of the Baltic states, which performs responsibly in terms of human rights and democracy, is a target for Russia and China. Neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor Chinese leader Xi Jinping was ashamed to follow Lithuania. their latest moves have a broader must, which is a test of the U.S. and European commitments but.
Mr. Putin is on his way to Lithuania, sheltering his neighbor Belarus and militarizing Kaliningrad, Russia’s regional fortress on the Baltic Sea. Mr Xi is campaigning for political and economic revenge.
The integration of the Baltic States into NATO and the European Union in 2004 was the culmination of the post-Cold War policy. Lithuania has helped lead Europe’s response to the plunder of Alexander Lukashenko’s dictatorial regime in Belarus, under the auspices of an opposition leader and holding a strong stance. This is the last way Vilnius has provoked the anger of Putin, who wants to restore what is close to Russia’s sphere of influence. In Putin’s fantasy, Lithuania is the main source of Russia’s historical insecurity. As a result, he finds himself in the neighborhood, he wants to control, he is at the top of the list.
Lithuania angered China with its decision to leave the 17 + 1 formula – the Beijing framework to deal with Europe – and allow the Taiwanese government to open a representative office in Vilnius. Beijing announced import ban for goods containing goods produced in Lithuania, a step detrimental to a European company with a factory or supply chain in Lithuania. ContinentalIr
In Germany, the car supplier is the newest international company under pressure from China to close down in Lithuania.
The question is, will Russia and China be willing or able to cooperate. At best, between China and Russia, the EU does not support Lithuania, and EU companies are looking for other goods for the Chinese market. Meanwhile, Putin may indirectly violate Lithuania’s territory, sovereignty or independence – in the name of ensuring Kaliningrad’s security – and fail to receive an effective response from the United States, Europe and NATO.
According to Xi, if he and Putin could separate Vilnius from NATO and the European Union, he would immediately tell Asia, where China wants to oust the United States and establish its regional hegemony. Most military strategies see Taiwan as China’s best target in the confrontation, and thus a major test of U.S. determination. But any indirect move to the “gray zone” of the conflict directed at Lithuania may have advantages.
If the US and Europe fail to fully support Lithuania, America’s allies and partners in Asia would question the US commitment. Instead of working more closely with Washington, they can become friendly with China. Sun Tzu will smile after winning the Battle of Taiwan in Lithuania.
He will also admire Mr Xi and persuade Putin to do the dirty work of checking the depth of the US Alliance’s commitments in Asia. This alternative layout has two advantages. First, Putin reveals the biggest risks, such as sanctions. Second, it strengthens the strategic partnership between China and Russia, as Putin’s Russia assumes the more powerful significance of China’s junior partnership.
Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO deployed four battalion-sized multinational battle groups in the Baltic States and Poland on a so-called enhanced front-end mission. The European Union, for its part, is considering trade measures following China’s boycott of Lithuania to protect member states from economic attacks. These steps are worthwhile but not enough to test out strong opponents such as Mr Putin and Mr Xi.
The West often relies on outdated political tools. In response to China’s boycott of Lithuania, Brussels has identified the World Trade Organization as a location for aid. Enhanced military leadership is a cyclical rather than a permanent force of limited size and strength. Neither the WTO nor a strengthened future presence is enough to guarantee Vilnius’ independence.
Lithuanian Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis recently described his country as a “canary in a coal mine”. America’s allies and partners in this world are considering the commitment of the United States before choosing their paths. As Vilnius feels the power of Russia and China, the credibility of the United States and Europe is at stake – securing the alliance. Retreating under pressure would be devastating for Lithuania and the Western global reputation.
Mr. Lindberg and Rough are senior associates at the Hudson Institute.
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