“Putin’s nightmare is the Russian Maidan and independent Ukraine”
In an interview Focus ex-president of Poland Aleksander Kwasniewski told why Putin needs Ukraine and who can defeat him.
Aleksander Kwasniewski played an important role in the history of the President of Poland (1995-2005). In 2004-2005, he decided to resolve the political crisis in Ukraine, and in 2013-2014, they came more than once with a monitoring mission that examined the Kwasniewski-Cox mission and whose task was to monitor the criminal cases of the former Prime Minister of Ukraine. Yulia Tymoshenko, former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko and former acting. about. Defense Minister Valery Ivashchenko.
Kwasniewski of Ukraine is called one of the main lobbyists in the West, as he has been in contact with Ukraine for many years in a row on its way to the EU and NATO.
On Russia’s attack on Ukraine: “Then it seems that this is a dream, then they will postpone it, that this is a plan”
Let’s start from the very beginning: on February 24, 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine. Was it a surprise for you?
“It’s not news to me that Putin has always wanted to have Ukraine in his hands. He told me personally this back in 2002, when he was still a young president, we had dinner in his Kremlin hotels. He said then that his main task was to create a great Russia, and that Ukraine could not be made without this. Then it seems that this is then a dream, that this is a plan. Putin has been living with such thoughts for a long time, and it is even impossible to slow him down. As long as it exists, it will not give Ukraine democratic, economic drivers. But to be honest, I didn’t think Putin would make such a historic mistake and kill a direct military invasion of Ukraine.
None of those who think at least somehow to argue, did not know why he should take such a radical step. They thought that it was a direct invasion, and not “we are not there” — these are his red lines. Why do you think Putin went so far?
— I think there are many factors. The first is his maniacal desire to make Russia great (and he doesn’t have much time anymore, he’s almost 70 years old). Putin believes that the West is in crisis after Trump, who was also a symbol of politics. He believed that another elderly man came to power in the United States – Joe Biden, who could not seriously do anything against the Russian Federation.
As for Europe – Merkel, the new government in Germany, Macron, who has presidential elections … Putin’s assessment and his entourage.
Therefore, he assumed that there were no restrictions on their use, that no one would guarantee that they would not be changed. He underestimated reality.
About Putin’s fears and absolute power
– After all, he has been leading a large country for 22 years. Of course, he is divorced from reality, he runs the country without any control at all. Even Stalin had a Politburo at one time, there were facial features, different frequencies, tastes of conflicts, Stalin could also do what he wanted, but it was still necessary to watch how the members of the Politburo reacted. And Putin can do absolutely everything. Because he has no control either from the parliament, or from the party, or from the Security Council. Even their meeting on the eve of the war – as Putin ordered, who is the boss here!
He has always been this way, and for so many years in power he has completely lost morality, for him there is nothing sacred.
Do you think Putin is still afraid of something?
I think he’s only afraid of two things. The first is how the street will react further. The Russian Maidan is his worst dream, remember how he was afraid of the Ukrainian Maidan, then the Belarusian one. The second is about his environment, because this is the history of the same tsarist Russia, the same USSR: when there were attacks on leaders. Remember even how Stalin’s entourage waited several days until he died and a new era began. Putin knows history well, that’s why he calls himself that. Long tables, distance – this is his fear of the environment, distrust.
On how decisions against the Russian Federation will be made
Is the West helping Ukraine enough today?
“The West has done a very important thing, which is why it speaks with one voice, supporting Ukraine. The sanctions are very specific, and they will be implemented, they will already be characteristic of Putin’s entourage. Now both Usmanov and Abramovich are arguing about any connection to Putin. We know how it really was.
Without the oligarchs of vertical Putinism, there would be no drivers. Only Khodorkovsky did not want to take part.
The problem is – and this is a mistake of some countries – that for many years we lived in such commerce that we need to be friends with Russia, regulate, buy gas and oil. And now it is difficult to expect from those countries that are almost completely dependent on the gas needle of the Russian Federation. This takes a little time. The structure of energy imports in Europe will change dramatically, there will be another year, and then the choice will be complete.
About NATO, weapons, other world and closed territories
What about us?
“Here the problem is more serious. Military assistance is and will continue. But you understand, if NATO crossed the red line and gave Putin such an argument that this special operation is not against “neo-Nazis”, then this is already a war with NATO – and at the beginning there is already a big risk. And I understand politicians who say that the war between Russia and NATO is the third world war.
Important
Isolated thinking. Psychiatrist analyzes Putin’s actions and appearance
multiple mental state of Putin, we understand that there will be a nuclear war. So for now, this safe approach is justified. But it is clear that the war has its own dynamics, it is a long process. And I do not rule out that if diplomacy reaches an impasse, then NATO may change some of its policy options – for example, the decision on closed skies.
Still, in some kind of temporary occurrence, can a decision be made to close the sky over Ukraine?
“No one knows when NATO might close the sky. But the fact that the Russians launched a missile attack 20 km from the border of a NATO country is already an argument. Maybe Putin does it on purpose, provokes. I don’t make decisions right now, but I think this could be a moment when leaders decide to make different decisions.
I believe that analysts are now preparing their papers for the leaders, what Putin can still do is to understand him better. I think that if such information is ready that he should agree against some NATO country, then they should be ready for this.
Do you believe that Putin can stop now?
“I think that Putin sincerely believes that Kyiv can take over in a few days, install its own government, Zelensky will be in his hands, and in this position it will be possible to control the whole of Ukraine. He did not expect such resistance from people belonging to the Ukrainian army.
What you invoke is the heroic approach. For us, the Poles, the Baltic States, Ukraine is a neighbor whom we understand well, because we know Tsarist Russia and the USSR well. Poland was not on the maps of the world for 123 years, because Catherine the Great decided that the Polish state should not have existed. Therefore, we understand you very well, and you should not be surprised that, for example, in Portugal or in Spain, people have reduced accessibility.
Ukraine will come out of this war. President Zelensky does a very good job, he has a very high level of speech, taking into account his commonality, he clearly communicates to everyone how important it is to be with Ukraine, even to those geographically distant countries.
On the new union of states proposed by Zelensky
President Zelensky proposed to the Union of States for a quick stop, as far as possible?
— I understand the president, he is looking for different opportunities. The war changes everything, and one can think about creating new organizations and associations. But this cannot be created in days or months, it is a long process. The second problem is the European Union. Ukraine became a member of the European Union.
What will it give us now?
– Everything. Possibility of complete reconstruction after the war, development, all natural resources, you will be part of the European world. And this also means the possibility of appearing in relation to Russia, when you will be more protected, despite the presence of some kind of guarantees. In the EU, Ukraine will be much stronger. And in Europe it is possible, because it turned out that such a war is near.
About peace talks
How do you see this process? What are we up to?
– If Putin wants to continue the war, it will be just talk, theater and Putin’s game, play for time. Any agreements with him are just a piece of paper, you have already seen this on the Minsk sides. But you need to understand that the economic situation in Russia is not improving, and his environment will feel stronger. As long as Putin is in power, this is all empty talk. Perhaps these were other conversations with the heir to Putin or already another generation, the “heir”, during the events of different countries.
Important
In a dark bunker. Where to go with Putin’s paranoia
The first thing that happened was that the Russian troops were withdrawn, the consumption of missile strikes, everything returned to the situation, as everything was before February 24. We understand that they will talk about the recognition of Crimea, the DNR/LNR, no military action in NATO, etc., but Ukraine, with the reaction of the world, will dictate its terms. All conditions and so on are the task of your president and people. The main thing to remember is not to trust Putin.
Is Putin ready to talk seriously about Ukraine with one of the European leaders, the President of the United States today?
– I think that he does not perceive anyone now as an equal to himself. After Merkel, Europe determines its position. Macron has an election soon. Of course, now it’s a little funny to me how he copies Zelensky, because he has enough charm to bring these elections closer. Putin thinks that he is the most experienced, with the expectation to equal him with Merkel – he received 16 years as chancellor. And he does not use it for other leaders. If Putin believes that in Ukraine he is fighting neo-Nazism, fascism, etc., then he is completely crazy. As they say: “Moscow does not believe in tears,” Putin only translates the language of force.
When will the war with Russia end?
Can there be such a scenario that the war in Ukraine will drag on for a long time? How was all these 8 years in the Donbass?
“Of course it could be. We have been living with such a military conflict in the Middle East for more than 60 years, and anything can happen. I believe that this is the most terrible scenario that will be interrupted by the impossibility of living a normal life for Ukrainians for many years, victims and destruction will continue… But, unfortunately, such a scenario is also possible.
Is the people responsible for whom they elect and who governs them? Are the Russians, who are silent now, responsible for the death and destruction that their presidents, their army, bear on the peaceful people?
– For the will of the brotherly, as they say, the Russian people, there are opportunities to be. I understand that it is easy to say “no” in Ukraine or Poland, in Russia it is a risk, but it is necessary now. Their country has come to foreign territory and is killing people. There are many books in which the authors talk about how the Germans are applicable for Hitler. And today the Germans are selling their responsibility. Last year, on the anniversary of the tragedy, German President Steinmeier came to Babi Yar, and he said that the Germans are interested in what Hitler did for life, and this is the responsibility of the entire German people. After this war, we understand: this is also waiting for the Russians, during which the spirit was not captured, say “no” to the war.
What do you think, what final awaits Putin?
“It will be a terrible end. He is forever a war criminal, and no one will ever forget that. Even if he still holds out as long as the former attitude to international relations to the irreconcilable will no longer be. I still expect the Russian people to rise up and have their say.