Poland’s GDP growth in 2022 Is the economy slowing down?
Will the Polish economy face a sharp slowdown in 2022?
in the amount of GDP of 7.3 percent. Now Piotr Kalisz, mainly Citi Handlowy economist may amount to approx. 6 percent. However, there are chemicals expecting 7 percent specifically. and a significant escalation in Ukraine.
Under such conditions, I would like to say: “let this moment last”, Because, like this year’s studies by Piotr Kalisz, the economy in the economy is still slowing down to 2 percent. at the end of 2022.
The substrate of growth for a very year can. belong on real house income. It is true that higher inflation translated into payrolls, but there is no effect to get the effect, to fully mitigate the energy shock ” – they write in the city of Citi.
See also: High inflation and economic slowdown. Will we be in 2022?
Their present that each 1 of the price shock can percentage consumption by about 0.3 points. percent The beginnings of the price increases, at the beginning of the year, the scenarios of the power generator (in terms of qqw) are therefore “very probable”.
“Looking at the data on a year-to-year basis, 2022 will be a very “uneven” voice, with about 6 percent. growth in Q1 and around 2 percent. increase at the end of the year. The annual average GDP will increase by about 4.4 percent. ”
PKO for the entireBP for the entire GDP dynamics in 2022 at at least 5 percent.
On the other hand, the economists of PKO BP will show more optimism. According to the niche data from the economy for checking that it really really is a new year for a high level of activity.
If the trends from January were maintained, this would imply a GDP growth of around 10% in the entire Q1 2022. yy. Our full-year GDP growth forecast at 4.1%. y / y is becoming too consistently conservative, and the likely result is the creation of 5 percent. (it comes in handy for a very high one).
The Government of Not Easy Art
Jankowiak, chief economist of the Polish Business Roundtable, does not have a positive opinion about the long-term Polish economy. His column was published in Rzeczpospolita, in which he scores for his very chaotic line.
In his opinion, Extending the anti-inflationary shield in the coming years, which will have to find an additional PLN 50 billion. Moreover, the economist lists three consequences of such an action:
- pushing from this year to the next;
- pumping this year’s deficit and reducing next year’s;
- raising the pace of economic growth this year and lowering economic growth.
“Introducing operations gives you the impression of chaos: who in the year of production has inflation. It would be an argument for quick elections “- they wondered.
Adding to this the addition of over PLN 40 billion to pensioners and the non-transparency of state finances (a large part of the expenditure is siphoned off the state budget, and thus the Sejm loses control over them), it gives Jankowiak an uninteresting picture of Polish economic policy:
- the government provides an additional group of unemployed people, insisting on adding in order to raise and raise inflation, which is reported by the use of NBP “shields” (NBP rate hikes);
- control the government thanks to the Polish Group Governance Group Group, it is possible to limit the resources of the national economy that finances itself;
- Consistently lowered country, sustained GDP for more than a year, reducing high GDP levels in high and high periods of economic growth
“Further composition in the field of mixed policy and further development” – summarizes the economist of the Polish Business Roundtable.