Something main in the political witch kitchen at the Hungarian border
Mirolad Dodik, Prime Minister of the Republika Srpska, made it clear that To the Financial Times in his interview that he did not really live up to the expectations of Western European countries and the US and intends to further expand the autonomy of the Serbian community vis-à-vis the central Sarajevo authorities. This, he said, only reverses the gradual centralization of recent years that was forced on the country by external powers after the end of the Yugoslav civil war in the 1990s.
Western leaders believe that the shift of Bosnian Serbs from a common power could destabilize the entire Western Balkans by triggering independence aspirations at the other two ethnic groups and involving Serbia and Croatia in a conflict that reorganizes the region’s borders. Dodik answers yes to the question of whether he wants to exclude the Republika Srpska from the central Bosnian institutions, administration and army.
The left-wing left-wing politician, according to the British newspaper, has become increasingly nationalist in recent times, now claiming that his radical moves do not mean that he would allow violence as a means to achieve his goals. I don’t want a war, he said. He does not want to sacrifice peace to change the status of Republika Srpska.
Under the 1995 Dayton Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina is divided into Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian communities, which should, in theory, govern the country as equals. However, the Serbian parliament in Banja Luka frightened the leadership of Western countries by voting in favor of a resolution on the independent tax authority, judiciary and army of the Republika Srpska.
However, in the spring of 2021, a draft called diplomatic non-paper was unveiled in Slovenia, which was developed to rethink the borders of the Balkans. The document attributed to Janez Jansa’s Slovenian government would effectively eliminate Bosnia and Herzegovina, annex the western part of its territory to Croatia, and return Serbian territories to the mainland. By the way, according to the paper, Kosovo could unite with Albania, in exchange for Belgrade gaining autonomy in key areas.
The presentation of the document was followed by great outrage, and the Hungarian government was also accused of participating in its elaboration. Olivér Várhelyi, who is responsible for enlargement, has even been investigated by the European Parliament.
What could be the end?
While this is not binding, internal and external opponents of the decision fear it could lead to the collapse of the Dayton peace system. In response, the U.S. has adopted sanctions, such as a visa restriction, against Dodik. The politician denies that his actions would jeopardize Bosnia’s stability and denies that his ultimate goal would be the withdrawal of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
He believes we need to stick to the Dayton agreement, which gives autonomy to the country’s three national-religious communities. In the recent past, power has become increasingly centralized, giving the largest group, the bastards, more than a third of the influence. He makes no secret now that he is not enthusiastic about the current Bosnian state framework that has forced him out of the community from the outside.
Good old days
Dodik previously had good relations with his Western political colleagues after supporting the reconnaissance of allegations made during the Yugoslav war. He has held a number of senior positions in his country, but is no longer favored in NATO and the capitals of Western European countries because of his greater nationalism, his pro-Russian friendship, and the allegations of corruption he has made, albeit denied. He denies that his aspirations for autonomy have anything to do with Moscow, on the other hand, Europe’s well-known leaders, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, or Viktor Orbán, the Prime Minister of Hungary, are open to his aspirations. Hungary is providing another € 100 million credit line to the Bosnian Serb government. The Hungarian prime minister also specifically opposes stronger EU action against the politician, arguing that the problems of the Balkans are not as understandable in Western Europe as they are in Hungary.
Mirolad Dodik is confident that the more he is attacked from abroad, the more he can gain political influence in the national and regional elections in October. His party could even reap an earthquake victory over “that the U.S. personally punished him”. As he says, it was more popular now than it was before the Washington sanctions were passed.